Replies to post #83525 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: Prospective ACH-1625 (and IDX320) partners

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ACHN had previously reported that they were in advanced and advancing discussions with three major players in the HCV space. ACHN reported that the list is now "5/6" and consists of the major players in the HCV space who have gaps in the protease portion of their portfolio. Dew or others: any speculation as to who this could be? Presumably, MRK, JNJ, Roche, ABT, and BMY can be excluded. So, who else is left in this space? Possibly NVS, GSK, PFE… perhaps GILD…
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I think you’re on the right track with those four. The other one or two names could be Japanese companies.

Dew, I wanted to re-visit this prior post where we briefly speculated on potential partners for ACHN's ACH-1625. I think we should include IDX320 now in the discussion obviously. I know I excluded Roche before, in part due to ITMN-191, but given some of the recent doubts regarding ITMN-191, perhaps Roche is in fact someone to consider as a potential partner. I know Roche did recently license ITMN's pre-clinical second gen HCV PI (#msg-49783993 ), but do you know when that occurred? I'm just curious if that occurred before ACHN's disclosure of qD results for ACH-1625. I think ACH-1625 or IDX320 could make some sense for Roche.

I originally speculated on NVS, GSK, PFE, and GILD as potential partners for ACHN. GILD now has its own PI, which I believe is in Phase 1, so presumably we can remove GILD (unless of course they have doubts about their PI having qD ability).

I don't understand why GSK doesn't have a bigger presence in the HCV arena. Their only participation appears to be due to their buyout of Genelabs for an NS5A inihibitor that isn't even in the clinic. I don't know if I should take GSK serious at all as a potential partner. They're going to need to do multiple deals (PI, nuke, etc.) to become a player, though I guess that could happen.

Same with NVS and PFE. It looks they have very little participation at all in the HCV arena right now, so I don't know how seriously they should be viewed as potential partners. Are they both looking to do multiple deals to become a serious contender?

All told, I think Roche may be the best bet for a potential partner for ACH-1625 or IDX320. It looks to me like Roche could use another PI. GSK and PFE are presumably more likely partners for IDIX given how they could immediately become a player by doing deals with IDIX for IDX184 and IDX320, and possibly the non-nuke and NS5A inhibitor as well.