Replies to post #83505 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

mnta

"a best-case scenario FDA decision with m-enox in 2009 might give us a the Vanda-like spike.
Who knows what the market psychology will be in 2010. Maybe in 2010 we see smaller fireworks"

psychology aside, the bottom line fundamentally is that IF MNTA's lovenox anda is the solely approved generic it deserves a huge spike - not just for the obvious commercial implications of the approval, but as many have said for the validation of the technology, particularly as it pertains to FOBs since differences in glycosylation patterns are what is central to the whole FOB debate since the protein backbone is readily duplicated in cell culture

[DewDiligence]

MNTA:

…with the market environment nowadays, especially in the speculative developmental biotech sector, a best-case scenario FDA decision with m-enox in 2009 might give us a Vanda-like spike. Who knows what the market psychology will be in 2010. Maybe in 2010 we see smaller fireworks, but fireworks nonetheless!

No need to worry unduly—in the best-case scenario where MNTA/NVS’ Lovenox ANDA is approved and the other Lovenox ANDA’s aren’t, MNTA’s share price won’t need any help from bullish market psychology.

Inasmuch as a single generic Lovenox would easily be the largest-selling generic drug of all time and MNTA’s share of the net profits would be about 45%, simple cerebral calculations without any boost from exuberant emotions should be sufficient to do the trick.

For anyone who hasn’t run the numbers, please see #msg-37875396.