Think we'll see the vix at 20 again before the end of the year? Looks like you aren't anticipating enough of a downdraft in the indexes for the vxo to reach that level, unless I read your posts incorrectly. 1750 comp would probably do it, though.
Zeev, one theory I've been watching lately is Gap Theory.
The premise is the distance in price leading from the last pivot high to the gap will be equaled in price and time below the gap.
Applying that theory to today's gaps, we get 1832 COMP and 1355 NDX as targets in 4-6 days. Using the bottom of the gap gives a measured move to 1818.
The 1832 target is derived from 1926-1879=47 points. 1879-47=1832 COMP.
The 1816 target is derived from 1926-1872=54 points. 1872-54=1818 COMP
Normally in a situation like this we seem to get a slightly lower low the day following the gap, followed by an attempt to fill the gap. That is followed by a drop to the gap theory target.
This would suggest a move to support tomorrow, a minor reversal up to test the gap at 1872, and a drop to test underlying support by Friday/Monday.
Historically, we've had our lows on the 3rd to the last trading day of the month or the last trading day of the month in September. October 1 sometimes has a low, but it is often a higher low unless the downtrend is strong.
Anyway, I thought it was interesting enough to share here.
I have some things that are pointing to this leg extending eventually below 1800 COMP, but it's too early to tell where things may be headed after this week, IMO.
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