Zeev, with respect to the Fed model, although you are right that there is a lot more risk in individual companies, the same is not true for the index as a whole. A well diversified basket of companies, such as those represented by the S&P, has a lot less risk than any one company.
Right now we're about halfway from where you consider the near term bottom and slightly less than half way from your near term top - since you think we'll do the bottom part first, wou;dn't you wanna be less exposed here?
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