Swampcracky, Those falling rates could be saying many things other than recession, like no inflation, deflation etc.. If I am interpreting your post correctly, why are you in the recession camp?
That is what the TLT is saying, but the TLT has been wrong before. The DJT is saying the economy has few more quarters of good (not great) expansion ahead of it. I do have a recession starting in the second half of 2005 or there about, and the market discounting it from a high late in January early February next year on... The fed may have another 4 to 5 tightening steps to get to around 2.75% to 3.25%, a place from where they then can stand against the wind and attempt another soft landing of the 2005 consumer led recession (at least according to my long term scenario from April 2000).
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