Replies to post #2527 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[michalel97123]

Whew! You dont mince words. The Realist and I will be crying in our beer this weekend.

A couple of questions.

a. percentage chance that you are wrong about this being a secular bear or what would it take to change your mind
b. What do you see as naz bear bottom and when will that occur and when do you anticipate the strongest cyclical bull move a la october to january.
c. Wouldnt/couldnt you make more money in a secular bear by going short more than going long. I am sure you have been asked this before about not shorting. I am relatively new so pardon the repeat question.

My plan is to follow you out after the next rally and back in at the appropriate times. You may not know it but you are already helping me. I have got my confidence back and part of that reflects at work and part of that helps me deal with the whopping losses i have taken. I dont think its a bad thing to lose money when "life lessons" are learned. mike
PS OT In a poll palestinians were asked which people they hated most--they answered Israelis. In the same poll they were asked whose political system they admired most--answer was Israel. Go figure! But there is some hope in those stats i think.

[lemming]

michalel97123,

This is exactly what a few of us are doing (trading the major trends with mutual funds). So far it has worked well. I am a little younger and can risk a little more, so I use Rydex's dynamic funds:

RYVNX - 200% short the NASDAQ 100
RYVYX - 200% long the NASDAQ 100

I must admit, the perspiration was flowing freely this week as 15 of my 16 accounts (long story) have been in RYVYX. However, as of yesterday's close, they are back where they were after Friday's one-day-wonder, even though we are still 6% below Friday's close on the NDX.

Those who cannot afford a 200% leverage on the markets could follow the turnips using a less volatile 100% short fund on the downside and the QQQ directly on the up side (allowing them to enter and exit any time of day, vs. trading at the close only with a mutual fund).

Zeev,

I have followed you for about a year on SI. Tremendous thanks for the past 6 months! While I have been able to catch the turnips' major tops on my own, I am quite impressed by your ability to pick the turn(ip)s at the bottom.

I was one of the fortunate who didn't start investing until AFTER the 1987 debacle and who got stopped out of most everything in March 2000. However, every time I ventured back in after 3/2000, I was promptly spanked, and those spankings accumulated. Following the turnips, a few other market timers, and some of my own home cooking, I am now just about back to my all time portfolio highs.

Keep up the good work, you turnip farmer you!

-David