Replies to post #2505 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

If 70 is only few years away for you, you really have no business risking your money in the market, unless it is money you are not going to need for retirement. Your 401k should be, IMTO, in a combination of treasuries, tips and GSE paper.

Zeev

[LG]

The Realist: I hope you don't mind if I respond to your post to Zeev?

I have had many pmails or emails sent to me from individuals that have had the same experience you have since the market began it descent in 2000. You're doing a lot better than many.

Some folks after their beloved tech stocks or internet stocks did not rebound to new highs with the first dip (now drop) of the correction listened to their "new era" gurus that had made their reputation being perma-bulls in a mania. When the downturn came the reality that the gurus did know what they were doing eventually became obvious, after many of those that had lost money listened once again to their gurus and leveraged (using options, etc) new long positions with expectation of regaining quickly what they have given back. For some this was fatal, as they lost nearly everything.

Trading is "not" a get rich quick profession. In fact, few make it and it is very hard work. I "highly" recommend to anyone that is just starting out to only trade small amounts of shares (100 for starters) until you begin to understand what you are doing. Sure you're not going to get rich that way, but you're not going to give up a lot during the learning process either.

Once you have a system that is winning consistently enough to make you money. Then you can begin to gradually increase your exposure to the market by gradually increasing your position. Say, go from 100 shares to 200 shares for a while and so on.

This allows you to learn how to work with larger and larger positions. You find out how quickly you can get larger positions executed, keeping in mind equities with low volume can trap you in a dramatic move that goes against you. I almost always trade issues with plenty of liquidity.

More important than watching someone else trade and trying to follow them, is to learn how to identify opportunities for yourself and at the same time learn how to execute using your own system.

Regards,
LG

[Velociraptor_]

"The Realist"...you have a Private message.

E-mail me if you do not have PM capability.

[e-mail]

[Steve Lee]

Get real and quit whining. Listen to Zeev. Be careful before you squander the rest of your grandchildrens fortune.

[warawls]

Are you "Sir Realist" on SI? Just curious...

[DlphcOracl]

A Message For the Realist

You have NO business trading the market!! You have already lost 2/3 of your capital in this bear market and you are well on your way to losing the rest. If you remember nothing else, remember this: "There are few things worse in life than being old and poor".

Having said that, permit me to give you a piece of unsolicited but heartfelt advice. I firmly believe that the secular trend over most of this decade is that we are in a bear market. In trying to trade in and out of it, you will slowly bleed your remaining wealth.

GIVE IT UP!!!!

My recommendation would be as follows: put 50% of your remaining capital in a CONSERVATIVE bond fund which emphasizes US Treasuries. Then put the remainder in TIPS. Zeev is absolutely dead right in his recommendation. After this, forget about the market, forget about trying to make back the money you've lost in the past 2 years (neither you nor anyone else is going to be able to do it), and enjoy the remainder of your life.

Regards,
DlphcOracl

[heehee1]

Realist...

FWIW, following Zeev is fine and dandy, but I highly recommend studying TA/FA and history of the stock market yourself. A knowledgeable investor is helpful, but a knowledgeable trader is a must. And I concur with LG. Start with paper trades or with a small number of stocks until you're more familiar with the movements and tricks of the market. Keep in mind even the best of traders can be whipsawed.

In a bear market, it helps to know a little economics as well to see how long the DOWN trend is and what signs to look for in a REAL turn around.

Hope I'm not overstepping my boundaries.. Just passing on what I've learned...for me.

Best,

[Boad]

Realist, I would just make two short points (to add to the other replies, some helpful, some appalling). Since you managed to accumulate $2.93m (over 30 years, at least at one point), you're probably a pretty smart fella and I'm risking here stating the obvious.

First, you still have a million dollars. Even if that is only your cash assets, my guess is that easily puts you in the top 5% (more or less -- used to know these stats cold) of people over 65 (you did say you were only a few years from 70). Over 50% of seniors only have Social Security (average = $800/month) -- and only a small percent of seniors have significant assets (but they have all the money. lol). What you may need is a financial planner -- both to organize your investments to generate a stable income, and to protect your assets from financial risks that are health related. Hint: If you think you or a spouse may need long-term nursing home care in the future, keep enough unprotected assets available to pay out-of-pocket the freight for the first year -- you'll get in any of the best facilities -- then a public program will pick up the costs later.

Second, having said that, trading is a learned skill. No reason why you can't learn it at 65 as well as 25. A great retirement "job." Probably wouldn't advise trying to earn the lost $2 million right away :) -- but no reason with a few high probability set-ups you can't pull down $500-1000 per day (that's $100-200K per year) on just 5% of your nut.

Good luck.