Replies to post #1781 on Foreign Correspondence

[otraque]

<<China's growing need for oil might make it a little more difficult but a recession is still easily done.>> I haven't made my point clearly.
The continued demand for oil by China will make a GLOBAL recession much more likely.
The adage is when Oil prices rise because of demand rising above supply the cost of oil forces then a situation where this cost can not be stopped without a global recession.
As long as China need for oil builds the more likely a global recession will hit.
Realize this seems contra-intuitive, but the point is one year( some say even 6months) of 50 plus dollars per barrel would be quite destructive as even if China kept buying at increasing demand rest of world would be forced to lower demand.
Disclaimer : i am building a large longterm 2-1 ultrashort position against the NDX(meaning if i am wrong in the longterm i am toast:)

[otraque]

<<I believe that if we had a viable alternate form of energy it would be much more difficult for the United States to maintain its position as that of sole superpower albeit I think China already shares the stage.>. We have known alternative energy must be accomplished for 30years.
In those 30 years the oil cartel has done all in their power to stop these alternative energy methods.
As a result, though much ground work as been made in alternative energy, we are still 30 years away where we should have been working full time on this.
All those also referring to tapping the huge reserves in oil loaded shale will solve the problem are not calculated time factor.
The point is the time factor is massive against heading off this crisis.
We have been all talk and little action for 30 years, talk solves NOTHING and that is why the crisis in NOW.