I'm reevaluating Myanmar junta, very interesting, we are going to be able to watch a battle for a pipeline from the beginning.
Win Aung often bore the brunt of Western anger and Asian frustration over his government's refusal to free pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, currently under house arrest. #msg-4087507
Because the West was often angry with Win Aung who was replaced as foreign minister by Maj. Gen. Nyan Win, formerly the vice chief of military training I mistakenly believed the United States was for the junta.
This, however, is not true.
A resolution seeking UN Security Council action against Myanmar was introduced on Monday in the US Senate, accusing the Southeast Asian state’s military rulers of brutally repressing ethnic minorities and using rape as a weapon of war.
Senator Mitch McConnell, who introduced the bill, said the Security Council should “immediately consider and take appropriate actions to respond to the growing threats” posed by the military junta to the Southeast Asian region. http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_22-9-2004_pg4_11
Currently, 60% of China's oil imports are transmitted through the Malacca Strait. Should it ever be blocked, China would suffer enormously. China therefore has proposed an alternative route, a Sino-Myanmar pipeline. The junta, given the reaction of the United States, may have been backed by China in order to guarantee the safety of the Sino-Myanmar pipeline.
China mulls oil pipelines in Myanmar, Thailand By Phar Kim Beng
Booming China, with its voracious appetite for oil and urgent need for oil security, is considering a China-Myanmar oil pipeline and one through Thailand. These are among 10 recent proposals on alternative strategies to secure China's energy supplies.
China first became an oil importing country in 1993. Its insatiable hunger for oil has since been an important factor in driving up world oil prices. The country's demand for oil is expected to grow by 8.1% or 510,000 barrel per day (bpd) by 2005, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The economy's growth may be severely hindered if the energy needs are not met. This summer saw the worst shortage in over 15 years despite the measures to reduce energy consumption. Throughout China, thousands of factories were asked to halt production for two days a week, shift work to non-peak hours or take mandatory week-long holidays.
Given the fact that China must create some 24 million jobs a year to absorb fresh labor, it just cannot afford such slowdowns. Indeed, with over 54% of the economy reliant on manufacturing, most of which remain energy-intensive, it's little wonder that China is concerned with its energy security.
Figures clearly demonstrate China's energy hunger. According to British Petroleum (BP) statistics, in 2003 China's total energy demand leaped by 13.8% following its GDP growth of 9.1%. China alone accounted for 41% of the growth of the total world oil demand, its oil imports rising 32% to 2.6 million bpd.
These are scary statistics as they show both the magnitude of China's energy appetite and its contribution to environmental hazards caused by excessive energy consumption. And Beijing is quite aware of the problem. "Every increase in revenue we gain at the expense of much higher energy consumption and more serious environmental pollution," says Pan Yue, vice-minister of the state environmental protection administration. According to him, the amount of sulphur dioxide - a major air pollutant - discharged per gross domestic product (GDP) unit in the country is 68.7 times that in Japan, 26.4 times that in Germany, and 60 times that in the United States.
Though China could theoretically avoid the double jeopardy of high energy consumption and environmental degradation by making the switch to high-technology industry, this transition could only take place in the long term. For now, it defines its energy security as gaining access to global energy supplies at competitive prices any time.
Lately, however, echoes of an alternative strategy to reinforce energy security needs are also being heard. On July 30, Li Lianzhong, the vice-director of the economic bureau of China's Central Policy Research Center, listed 10 proposals to protect China's energy safety at the National Energy Development and Investment Forum. Of these, the most interesting one is the construction of a Sino-Myanmar pipeline.
The proposal stands out for two reasons. To begin with, it seeks to reduce China's dependence on oil in Middle East. In addition, China is aware that the US, India, even Japan, are exerting undue weight on the Strait of Malacca. Currently, 60% of China's oil imports are transmitted through the Malacca Strait. Should it ever be blocked, China would suffer enormously.
As Professor Li Chengyang, co-author of the proposal said, "Most of China's oil imports come from the Middle East and Africa. Given the current situation in the Malacca Strait, we feel we should come up with a suitable alternative." The proposal suggested that China should build an oil pipeline from Myanmar's western deep-water port of Sittwe across the country to the city of Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province in southwest China.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Myanmar Prime Minister Khin Nyunt discussed the plans for an oil pipeline when they met on July 11 in Beijing. The project would reduce the oil route by 1,820 sea miles compared with the Malacca route, estimate experts.
But this is not the only option weighed by China. Plans are afoot to build oil pipelines to China from other Asian countries, including Thailand, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Of these proposals, the one from Thailand has gone the furthest and received enormous support from the Thai government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thailand's state energy conglomerate PTT and China's giant oil major Sinopec announced in June that they were looking into the possibility of a new pipeline so that oil tankers from the Middle East don't have to pass through the Malacca Strait. The project was announced in Manila at the business forum of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The new pipeline would save as much as a week of voyage time for crude oil shipments to China, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.
The PTT study estimated that the new pipeline could cost up to US$880 million. The project would include the oil pipeline, tank storage and tanker terminals on both the west and east coasts of Thailand's Kra Isthmus. The project would need to transit a minimum of 1.5 million barrels per day to be feasible. If built, the pipeline would start north of Phuket Island on the west coast and pump the oil across the peninsula to an eastern terminus for trans-shipment to tankers sailing to China and Japan, Asia's two largest oil consumers.
If the Myanmar and Thai proposals do succeed, the one country that would be severely affected would be Singapore. China is one of Singapore's most important oil trading clients, with a substantial proportion of China's oil imports coming via Singapore. Alternative oil routes would undermine that special relationship.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
Myanmar's hardline generals gain the upper hand By Larry Jagan
BANGKOK - A major cabinet shake-up by Myanmar's military junta that resulted in the dismissal of the country's foreign minister, a seasoned diplomat, is sending a signal that military hardliners have strengthened their control over the country, and the pragmatists are losing the internal struggle for influence.
On Saturday, Myanmar's military leaders axed Foreign Minister Win Aung and his deputy Khin Maung Win and replaced them with two little-known military officers, both of whom have no previous diplomatic experience.
Lately, rifts among Myanmar's top military rulers have grown ever wider. For months there has been an impasse among the country's top generals over how to handle international criticism and pressure to introduce political reforms. With this latest move, it seems the hardliners around General Than Shwe, chairman of the junta's State Peace and Development Council, have moved to oust the pragmatists supporting Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt.
Win Aung was a close confidant of Khin Nyunt. His replacement, Major General Nyan Win - deputy head of the military training college until Saturday's promotion - is a Than Shwe loyalist.
In the face of growing international pressure that includes sanctions and persistent demands for the immediate release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar's top general has opted for the military's traditional approach of self-imposed isolation.
"Than Shwe is clearly pulling down the shutters to the outside world," a Burmese businessman in Yangon told Inter Press Service. "Burma's leaders have always been quick to impose their own form of self-isolation when they did not want to deal with problems," he said. (Myanmar was known as Burma until the junta changed the country's name in 1989.)
The cabinet changes come only weeks before Myanmar is scheduled to defend its human-rights record and lack of progress toward political reform at several major international meetings. Win Aung was scheduled to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York, the Asia-Europe meeting (ASEM) in Vietnam and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in the Laotian capital of Vientiane.
Myanmar joined ASEAN, a 10-member grouping that also includes Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, in 1997. Despite misgivings by some governments and activists within and outside of the region, ASEAN countries said Myanmar's membership would allow their policy of "constructive engagement" to slowly encourage Yangon to open up its political system.
"To change the foreign minister at this crucial moment is an insult to the international community - and it is a clear message that Burma's leaders have little or no regard for international opinion," said a senior UN official.
Win Aung was replaced less than a week before the foreign minister was scheduled to go to New York for the start of the UN General Assembly and defend Myanmar in the face of international criticism. The country's human-rights record is due to be closely scrutinized during the UN session. And according to diplomats in New York, this year's resolution on Myanmar is expected to be very tough.
Apart from addressing the UN, the foreign minister was also scheduled to attend an informal meeting on Myanmar with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and his special envoy to Myanmar Razali Ismail.
It is still unclear whether the new foreign minister will attend these New York meetings, according to senior UN sources. But it seems he will be going to the general assembly, accompanied by Labor Minister Tin Win, who, according to government officials, also was promoted to a ministerial post in the reshuffle.
In addition to Myanmar's human-rights violations, Than Shwe's stubborn refusal to release pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi from house arrest also has inflamed international opinion. Late last month Annan released an extremely critical report on the state of Myanmar's national reconciliation process. In it, he condemned the regime for failing to involve Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) and other opposition parties in the National Convention, which is currently drawing up a new constitution. His comments provided an added blow to attempts made by Khin Nyunt to convince the international community that Yangon is serious about democratic reform.
Suu Kyi was first placed under house arrest by the military junta months before the 1990 national elections, in which her NLD won the majority of seats. She was released briefly in 1995, but her movements outside the capital were restricted by the junta. Suu Kyi was returned to detention following an attack on her and fellow party members on May 30, 2003. Her party has since experienced a renewed crackdown.
Since late last year Win Aung had repeatedly told UN envoy Razali and his Asian counterparts that Suu Kyi would be released in time to participate in the National Convention. "Aung San Suu Kyi will be fully free, able to meet other members of her party and conduct normal political activities," Win Aung told IPS in an exclusive interview in the Thai island of Phuket earlier this year. "The NLD will also be allowed to re-open their offices before the convention gets underway," he said.
But despite these assurances, Than Shwe excluded the political parties from the constitutional drafting process and kept Suu Kyi locked up.
Win Aung's removal now casts major doubts about Razali's future involvement in Myanmar. It has been seven months since he was last allowed to visit Yangon. Repeated requests to return have been rebuffed by the regime, according to diplomats in the capital.
"Ambassador Razali angered the senior general [Than Shwe] last time he was here when he called for the prime minister to be given a mandate to introduce political reform and suggested that there was a rift between the top military leaders," said a senior Asian diplomat.
The pragmatists, including the prime minister, who favor involving Suu Kyi in the national reconciliation process and engaging in a dialogue with the international community, are being increasingly sidelined, and many are worried about their political futures.
The foreign ministry has traditionally been under the control of the country's military intelligence chiefs. Win Aung's removal and replacement by an army man is a clear indication that Than Shwe and the hardliners have wrested control from Khin Nyunt.
"Unfortunately Burma's future lies in the hands of only one man," a Western diplomat based in Yangon said on condition of anonymity. "And that is not the prime minister."
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