Replies to post #82862 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

HIV Market Data from GILD 3Q09 CC

The HIV market continues to grow slowly but steadily in the US
and EU thanks to increased testing, which has been facilitated
by recent legislation (#msg-31419107), and new treatment
guidelines that recommend an earlier start (#msg-33124429).

GILD’s Atripla/Truvada franchise continues to take market share
from GSK’s ‡Epzicom/Kivexa, which is a now a very distant second
among nucleoside backbones.

Here are data** on penetration and market
share as provided by GILD on its 3Q09 CC:


US patients: All lines
180K on Atripla (32% share)
211K on Truvada (37% share)
†20K on Viread (4% share)
====
411K on tenofovir in some form (72% share)
160K on non-tenofovir regimens (28% share)
====
571K total patients, +6% year-over-year, flat quarter-over-quarter


US patients: First-line only
Atripla or Truvada: 85% share (Atripla per se 50% share)
‡Epzicom: 4% share


EU* patients: All lines
281K total patients, +7% year-over-year, +1% quarter-over-quarter


EU* patients: First-line only
Atripla or Truvada: 74% share in 3Q09
‡Kivexa: 11% share in 3Q09


*Top-5 EU countries: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain.
**As of the end of 2Q09 unless otherwise specified.
†Estimate by Dew.
‡Epzicom (US) and Kivexa (EU) are the same product: a combination of GSK’s Epivir and Ziagen.