Average success rates (the chances of reaching the market eventually) for new chemical entities are about 20% for those that successfully complete phase I trials, 30% for phase II, and 67% for phase III. FDA approval rates are about 2/3. That means less than 10% of drugs with an IND reach the market; and only 1/3 of these are successful products. And yes, it varies by indication, type of product, ie biologic vs NCE vs me-too vs antibodies, and size of the company.
For someone who knows as little about this industry as you do, I am impressed by your absolute posting style.
For example, a week or so ago you were belittling Helicos because your friend, the esteemed, accomplished, Christian scientist (I may have some details wrong here, but that's irrelevant) claimed that the new AFFX sequencing platform was waaayyy better than the HLCS machine. Here's the catch: AFFX has is an array company and does not sell sequencing equipment.
Just an observation.
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