Replies to post #764 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[ajtj99]

Augie, this is longer version, but without that impressive chart, from Sunday, July 7:

Augie, looking at things, I think the most logical course is the re-test happening on late Tuesday / early Wednesday to fill half the COMP / NDX gaps (around 1392 COMP and 1108-1110 NDX, but the COMP fill will determine where the NDX bounces, IMO). A rise into early expiration week, possibly QQQ 27.75 or so, a drop into mid expiration week around QQQ 26.50 or so, and a rise into expiration to around 27. (you can do the NDX equivalent by multiplying by 40.15).
We've got to do this kind of shaking because lots of the big caps are close to pain already.

After expiration, I believe we drop to test the low we will set early this week on our re-test. That should hold, but probably will be slightly pierced.

A rise up into August for expiration from that low is what I'm looking for as we need a flat correction here to relieve some of the oversold condition on the charts.

From there, I think we will drop to the 1197 target by September / October. A rise into November expiration could get us to a COMP 1400 target, and a drop into the end of the year to re-test and breach the October low with a target around 1050.

If we drop to that level in the end of the year, we should ramp in the normal manner in early January to test 1197, then drop to the 975-1000 level in early 2003. It is from there that we have to watch to see if we get a spike down to 800 or not in a panic low. The Nasdaq will probably just meander a bit at that point while it waits for the Dow and NYA to find their bottoms.

The rise into November will accomplish a flat correction over the latter 2002 time-frame, allowing for the final 3 or 5-wave drop to follow.

Anyway, this is what I'm going to be on the lookout for, and don't even think I know for a minute what I'm talking about.

[jdaasoc]

S&P chart crystal clear never more then 2 up days in a row since 3/27. Until we get 3 days up in a row, you can be a short with impunity IMO. Today was going to be 3rd day.

[mish]

Max Pain
AJ and I agree. He must be reading my mind. Here is a post I did earlier on SI.

Max Pain is 27 but 26 is very close.
More than likely "da boys" make money regardless but currently the best guess is somewhere between 26 and 27 is where they make the most money.
It is possible IMO that last Friday was "it" and thay just shorted the crap out of everything on the opening ramp and will just let it fall like last month. That is not really my call but it certainly is possible.

Howver, given the limited upside potential IMO, from this point the downside risk seem greater than upside gain to me and I am heavy in cash. At QQQ 24, if the market shows any inclination towards rally, I will hop on with a few QQQ calls.

The "radish" OE expectation would be another pullback or sideways nonsense for a day or two then a rally friday and continuing Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Not sure how this differs from turnips call, but at any rate I do think QQQ 27-28 is likely to be a brick wall if it even gets that close again. If more people load up on QQQ 26 calls we could just die right here or at another attempt at 26.

M
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In another post somewhere I suggested the possibility that after the OE ramp(if it comes at all) we just fall like last month. It is indeed a reasonable sceanrio.

M