Steve: I don't usually proclaim hard targets. And I always recognize I can be wrong. So, I often include in my analysis what I expect and what might prove my expectation incorrect.
Some folks get confused with that approach, others appreciate it.
I've been laying out my analysis this ways for many years. It is how I do it. If you have been reading my stuff for several years, you have seen it many times.
It is not an effort to be vague, but it is an effort to say there are no certainties when speculating what the market is going to do.
I am expecting new Oct 2002 Rally Highs. My MTF Analysis indicated significant accumulation to the point of producing a significant rally from the August lows. More often than not, these reads have proven correct. My methodology moved me out in Aug 1987 back in, in Dec 88 and would have been earlier had I not listened to all the doomsday Sayers. For the most part I’ve been on the right side of every major move since. Sometimes I’ve been wrong with regards to the magnitude of the move (the move does not go as far as expected), but my MTF Analysis method usually corrects my expectation in time to catch the next reversal. So far so good!
If you have followed my MTF Analysis Methodology, you should know it is less about predicting magnitude and more about identify direction and reversals just prior, during or just after. After all, I should know I created it. Magnitude speculation is less accurate, but necessary to help determine position exposure.
Am I saying my MTF Analysis method always gets it right, no way...
LG
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