Hey Fabian: nice post but I would like to add and take away somethings.
Market has gone up more than 50% so why this post now? Your observation of shorts has been so right that this is akin to throwing salt on wounds.
I personally don't believe bias is the main problem I had a very( Correctly )bearish view of economy from 2006 on but I was loosing money on being long on indivdual equitiies as A/D was declining. I made big money from Dec 1,2008 to Jan 6,2009 while few dared long. And then lost it all from Jan6 to March 6 2009. Dared long on March 6, 2009 made some money and for the crime of following crowd quickly sold early and went short.
Problem my friend is a different kind of bias,not the bull bear type.
Its called emotional inertia. We don't change when market changes and we don't stick with trend for its completion ( we are very skittish - market makers are not- they have a plan). Market is not a yo yo, MMs are like big elephants can't turn on a dime, but we turn tails like rats.
We are beholden to our emotions, which, in turn are shaped by recent events ( market action/ news) and make changes to our views too late just like your post here, suffering from same wicked emotional inertia.
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