Former President's retirement raises hopes for democratic reform
Jonathan Watts in Beijing Sunday September 19, 2004 The Observer
The former Chinese President, Jiang Zemin, has tendered his resignation as head of the People's Liberation Army, according to reports yesterday, raising hopes for political reform in the world's most populous nation. Jiang, who was widely blamed for holding up democratic change, will be replaced today as chief of the military by President Hu Jintao, according to the South China Morning Post.
If the move goes ahead, it would complete the smoothest transition of power in the history of the Communist party, but Jiang is likely to retain much influence through his supporters on the Politburo.
When he stepped down as President almost two years ago, Jiang held on to the military post in an apparent effort to safeguard his legacy. But throughout the summer pressure has been building on him to step down. Last month he was airbrushed from an old photograph showing Hu meeting paramount leader Deng Xiaoping.
Celebrations of the 100th anniversary of the birth of Deng - the father of China's modernisation - were also used to push the message that Jiang should go. In a prominent speech Deng's daughter hailed her father as an example of not clinging to power.
Earlier this month unnamed sources told the New York Times that Jiang had announced plans for his retirement. Senior academics have been unusually willing publicly to criticise the former President for blocking media liberalisation.
A raft of reports now suggests that the 78-year-old has decided enough is enough. Jiang is reported to have tendered his resignation at the start of the party plenum, which began last Thursday.
'His health is very poor ... He wants to go,' a family member told Reuters. Jiang has had a heart problem since 1989, when he rose to power amid the reshuffle that followed the Tiananmen Square massacre. The news has yet to be announced in China, but it is certain to encourage supporters of democratic reform.
Cao Siyuan, president of Beijing Siyuan Research Centre for Social Science, said the resignation would improve the health of the nation's politics. 'We have had more than 20 years of economic reform and now we need political reform. Both legs are important,' he said. 'In the vast majority of countries, the political leader is also the head of the military. We should follow the global trend.'
Foreign observers said the political climate was conducive to a full transition of power to Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao.
'The views of the new leadership are far more prominent than a year ago,' said a diplomatic source. 'They appear to be more in charge.'
Jiang may feel confident that his legacy is already assured. His theory of the 'Three Represents' was written into the constitution earlier this year, alongside Mao Zedong Thought and Deng Xiaoping Theory.
Many of his allies also hold key positions. At least five of the nine-man Politburo are loyal to Jiang. Chief among them is Zeng Qinghong, who may be given a senior military position to balance Hu's expected assumption of power today.
Jiang, who enjoys a reputation of boastfulness, is unlikely to disappear quietly into the shadows. He can claim considerable achievements under his leadership, including spectacular economic growth, accession to the World Trade Organisation and the successful bid for the 2008 Olympics. But analysts said he lacks the charisma to wield the same degree of backroom influence as did his predecessor, Deng Xiaoping, who pulled the strings many years after his retirement
'We are unlikely to see a major shift in policy, but gradually Jiang's influence will fade,' said Huang Weiping, director of the political research centre of Shenzhen University. 'Jiang is not powerful enough to play the role of Deng.'
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