Replies to post #82240 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: HCV drug development

they are not alone in being cryptic about development programs. This has to be the single hottest area of drug development today - and I think everyone is now looking ahead 5+ years for any edge they can get, beyond even efficacy - optimal PK, high potency for coformulation, etc.

Absolutely. And I'm of the opinion that the gap between the market caps for VRTX and the second and third tiers of prospective HCV players is much too wide. Telaprevir is a great drug and I'm sure will see a lot of success in the marketplace but it will not be the end-all-be-all among HCV drugs. There will be follow-on compounds that improve upon it, either with better PK, better potency, better safety, etc. This is a main reason why I'm long both IDIX and ACHN. I just think the valuation gap is much, much too wide and should shrink considerably with further success from each company in the clinic.

Look at ACHN with just a $50 million market cap. It is a risky story to be sure, and maybe I have the blinders on being a long, but if they can prove PoC with ACH-1625 in the ongoing Phase 1 and land a lucrative partnership, I can't envision any scenario where the market cap isn't several multiples higher than today's valuation. It's a good risk/reward IMHO. They do have to execute of course, so we will see how this one plays out.