Replies to post #205805 on SwingTrade Member Forum (SWING)

[MikeDDKing]

UPG is now a member of the favorites list at $2.17. Here is a short list of reasons why I really like them:

1. UPG had very nice earnings in Q1 of this year but it was masked by one-time charges. If they didn't have the one-time charges they would have made roughly $0.13/share. My guess is that earnings for Q2 will be quite nice also but they will not have the one-time charges associated with Q1. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Universal-Power-Group-Reports-bw-3750769415.html?x=0&.v=5

2. A big part of their one time charges was the buy-out of their primary purchasing agent, Stan Battat, who formerly purchased their products from China. They now intend to deal directly with the Chinese factories thus cutting out the middle man. Last year they paid Stan Battat $2.0M in fees and commissions. If all of that drops to the bottom line that will result in a pre-tax gain of $0.40/share/year. I don't think that one can assume that all of that will drop to the bottom line but I think a sizeable portion of it will. My guess is it is Q3 or Q4 when we start seeing this cost benefit impact their earnings. http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6484363-924-7278&type=sect&dcn=0000930413-09-001442

3. They have a book value of $3.39/share so they are trading substantially under book value.

Note they report earnings tomorrow morning.

[Rawnoc]

UPG -- since they are reporting tomorrow, my write-up consists of "I agree with MikeDDKing" for now. :)

[P K G]

Okay.

I have some funds to put in. What is number one?

Add to TRTN, GNBT, APTD, VBDG, PWEB, DAAT or get another?

Thank you for your help.

[Rawnoc]

+90.3% = YTD SWINGTRADE FAVORITES AS OF 9/17/09:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40358255

SYMBOL	ENTRY	SEP 17	% GAIN 
 EGMI	0.37	1.65	 345.95  
 TWB*x	2.14	6.60	 208.41  
 IECx	1.50	4.52	 201.33  
 DAAT	0.34	0.90	 164.68  
 BBI.B*	0.32	0.83	 159.38  
 GSB*x	0.89	1.85	 107.87  
 PWEB*	0.13	0.23	 84.00  
 UVEx	2.43	3.60	 52.26  
 ROIAK	0.50	0.76	 52.00  
 STVIx	0.70	0.88	 25.71  
 VVDL*x	0.18	0.20	 11.11  
 UPG	2.17	2.39	 10.14  
 REPR	0.18	0.19	 2.78  
 VBDG	0.14	0.09	 (35.71) 
 RBCL	0.53	0.34	 (35.73) 
 --------------------------------------			 
 AVERAGE RETURN	90.3%

Entry = Closing price of 12/31/08 or price at entry for new favorites of 2009.
* = New picks of 2009.
x = trade completed
These are our top favorite holdings. The average return is an average equal-weight as of the date & closing prices of this post or the price of the stock at the time posted as a completed trade and therefore removed from favorites.

[Rawnoc]

+148.7% = AVG SWINGTRADE FAVORITES AS OF 9/17/09:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40358255

SYMBOL	ENTRY	HOY	% GAIN 
 IEC	1.50	7.69	 412.67  
 EGMI	0.37	1.80	 386.49  
 TWB*	2.14	8.58	 300.93  
 BBI.B*	0.32	0.89	 178.13  
 PWEB*	0.13	0.34	 172.00  
 GSB*	0.89	2.37	 166.29  
 DAAT	0.34	0.90	 164.68  
 UVEd	2.43	5.96	 154.32  
 ROIAK	0.50	0.98	 96.00  
 VBDG	0.14	0.25	 78.57  
 STVI	0.70	1.08	 54.29  
 VVDL*	0.18	0.24	 33.33  
 UPG	2.17	2.75	 26.73  
 REPR	0.18	0.20	 11.11  
 RBCL	0.53	0.50	 (5.48) 
 --------------------------------------		 
 AVERAGE RETURN	148.7%

Entry = Closing price of 12/31/08 or price at entry for new favorites of 2009.

* = new pick of 2009
d = dividend(s) paid included but only those paid up until the 2009 high

These are our top favorite holdings. The average return is an average equal-weight from beginning of 2009 (or price at time new pick is entered) until the highest price it reached. This represents the potential return in theory one that the opportunity to sell for.

[Rawnoc]

RODM - thoughts as of 9/20/09:

RODM -- Investment banker (#1 in PIPE transactions by volume) that's suddenly making massive money hand over fist and growing fast, beautiful balance sheet, annualized earnings last Q = $1.26/share with the next Q no doubt IMO will be much bigger. They have a lot more deal flow this Q so I think earnings could be as high as +.50 EPS for this Q for an annualized PE of just over 2. RODM to $20 very possible IMO

Consider the sudden massive surge in deal flow...

Q1 $58.4 million
Q2 $399.4 million (despite being a seasonally weak period)
Q3 Already close to $500 million as of this post.

Website:
http://www.rodmanandrenshaw.com/

Transactions:
http://www.rodmanandrenshaw.com/recenttrans

Keep in mind -- each deal deal/transaction RODM makes = stock symbol is put in the financing PR of that public company and RODM appears on more and more radars. They have been announcing and completing huge deals left and right with public announcements that make tracking their business easy to follow.

RODM 7/8/09 conference call... a few of interesting tidbits:
--Emphasized that current operating cash costs are fixed at $6 million per quarter.
--Emphasized headcount ended Q2 identical to Q1.
--Their "level 3 assets" are warrants in liquid publicly traded companies with a very active market and are "very easy to sell"
--Q3 is normally a seasonally slow period (my comment -- yet it appears the total transaction value is going to nicely break that of Q2's fanastic performance)
--Good number of potential deals out of China in the coming months and quarters.

Dare I say they may smash my original EPS guess of +.50 for an annualized EPS of $2.00???

$20+ coming IMO

PS -- An excellent point I read elsewhere -- with the credit markets still so tight, it makes the demand for PIPE deals all that much stronger. Where normally companies would turn to banks for financing, they are now and will be turning to companies like RODM instead as it's the only game in town available to a lot of them. I think a lot of people are underestimating both the staying power and near term growth potential of RODM -- this isn't just about a backlog of equity financing that was temporarily delayed to this quarter. This is about replacing the debt markets which is suddenly absent for many. See this blog: http://theperfectstock.blogspot.com/

[Rawnoc]

TBUS - thoughts as of 9/21/09:

TBUS = recession-resistant technology company servicing the public transportation industry that just started making money hand over fist while guiding for impressive growth going forward. Trades on the NASDAQ. Earnings last Q were +.09 EPS (+200% YOY) with guidance of +.22 for the 2nd half of 2009 or a +.44 EPS run rate. Seems to be a completely off radar and undiscovered gem.

PE of 15 = $6.60
PE of 20 = $8.80
PE of 25 = $13.20

From last report -- "We expect to see additional orders materialize as the September 2009 federal commitment deadline approaches. Later this year, we plan to discuss the aggregate orders received as a direct result of the U.S. federal stimulus funding"

Insiders loading -- a variety of officers have been loading all year:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TBUS

Last Earnings Report:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DRI-Corporation-Posts-bw-3819744400.html?x=0&.v=1

Web Site:
http://www.digrec.com

[Rawnoc]

GAXC - thoughts as of 9/21/09:

GAXC = self-service kiosk company making nice money with huge growth potential ahead of it. Currently they mostly own, manage or operate a huge network of ATMs but they have been test-marketing with great success and are in the process of launching through their network DVD-kiosks in the same fashion as Coinstar's Redbox. In addition, they are signing some very interesting new deals for their ATM services which should also help accelerate their top and bottom lines. The upside potential for earnings (and the stock price) are huge if they even get a sliver of the DVD-kiosk market which has some really huge margins.

Recent insider buying including from CEO George McQuain:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=GAXC.OB

MidSouth Investor Fund owns 5.8% of GAXC. They have recently been acquiring shares.
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6722501-1920-6833&type=sect&TabIndex=2&companyid=10136&ppu=%252fdefault.aspx%253fcik%253d852570

Website
http://www.globalaxcess.biz

[MikeDDKing]

RODM is one of my favorite holdings right now. They made $0.42/share in Q2 on transaction volume of $399.4M. The transaction volume already announced in Q3 well exceeds the transaction volume announced in Q2 and there still is a little time left in the quarter. Also, as a bonus in Q3 there will be some revenue from the conference that they held (maybe $1M). Therefore, I'm expecting Q3 earnings to well exceed Q2 earnings. The stock seems quite undervalued at $4.98.

For more DD look at the RODM board which is located here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=14121

[Rawnoc]

TBUS - thoughts as of 9/21/09:

TBUS = recession-resistant technology company servicing the public transportation industry that just started making money hand over fist while guiding for impressive growth going forward. Trades on the NASDAQ. Earnings last Q were +.09 EPS (+200% YOY) with guidance of +.22 for the 2nd half of 2009 or a +.44 EPS runrate. Seems to be a completely off radar and undiscovered gem.

PE of 15 = $6.60
PE of 20 = $8.80
PE of 25 = $11.00
PE of 30 = $13.20

From last report -- "We expect to see additional orders materialize as the September 2009 federal commitment deadline approaches. Later this year, we plan to discuss the aggregate orders received as a direct result of the U.S. federal stimulus funding"

Insiders loading -- a variety of officers have been loading all year:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=TBUS

Last Earnings Report:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/DRI-Corporation-Posts-bw-3819744400.html?x=0&.v=1

Web Site:
http://www.digrec.com

[MikeDDKing]

GAXC is a rapidly growing company in the self serve kiosk business. Their traditional business is ATM's and they are expanding into DVD kiosks and plan to expand into additional new areas. They are planning to become a mini CSTR. Here is some more information explaining why I like GAXC.

1. They made $0.025/share last quarter and I estimate that they will make $0.037 in Q3 and $0.039 in Q4. The growth is almost entirely in the ATM business and has been driven by signing on some new customers. Even if you ignore DVD kiosk growth the company IMO is quite undervalued at $0.88 given their ATM earnings.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41102663
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40791579
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40791689

2. I estimate that the DVD kiosk business could generate EPS of $0.05/share/quarter by the end of 2010 assuming their introduction goes as planned. The DVD kiosks are currently in trial. Initially they had 9 trial sites which they increased to 24. The increase in the number of sites seems to imply that the trial is going well.

More GAXC DD can be found here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=13686

[MikeDDKing]

TBUS is another good multi-bagger candidate. They sell information technology products for public transportation. They made $0.09/share in Q2 and are guiding for an average of $0.11/share for each of Q3 and Q4. They last traded at $2.53 so they are trading at a low multiple relative to expected earnings going forward. A few more reasons why I like TBUS are:

1. They are guiding for long term revenue growth. Per the Q2'09 PR they are guiding for revenue to increase from $70.6M in 2008 to $83M in 2009 and finally to $120M by the end of 2011.

2. They expect to receive additional orders due to U.S. federal stimulus funding.

3. Insiders have been buying shares.

For more DD please go to the TBUS board which is located here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=10073

[swampboots]

Added RBCL @ .30 eom

[MikeDDKing]

SWINGTRADE BOARD FAVORITES BY MikeDDKing&Rawnoc (09/23/09 update):

* RODM - New Pick - #1 PIPE investment banker
* Rawnoc's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41680096
* MikeDDKing's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41716591
* Board - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=14121

* TBUS - New Pick - Rapidly growing technology company servicing the public transportation industry
* Rawnoc's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41719174
* MikeDDKing's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41770538
* Board - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=10073

* GAXC - New Pick - Mini CSTR - Rapidly growing self serve kiosk provider
* MikeDDKing's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41756241
* Rawnoc's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=41687542
* Board - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=13686

* UPG - New Pick - Growing battery distributor
* MikeDDKing's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40379407
* Rawnoc's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40379624
* Board - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=12541

EGMI - Rapidly growing & profitable makers of the electronic game & lottery card.
Rawnoc's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37840804
MikeDDKing's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33924042
Board - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=6737

ROIAK - Radio broadcaster turn around situation with huge potential!
MikeDDKing's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40357969
Rawnoc's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40354026

DAAT - Fast growing & profitable maker of gun cleaning kits & other household items.
MikeDDKing's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=38153125
Rawnoc's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37882296
Board - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=3270

VBDG - Dramatic turnaround consumer product stock seeing rapid growth from their new retail biz plan.
Rawnoc's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=38108317
MikeDDKing's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34021586
Board - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=10478

REPR - Rapidly growing & profitable makers of the only home, FDA & medicare approved syringe infusion system.
Rawnoc's thoughts - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=40169788
Board - http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=201

*updated since last posting

This list is in no particular order (except that the most recently updated tends to be toward the top) nor are they owned in equally weighted amounts as some we may have a LOT of money in while others very little as of the last update. Any links are thoughts as of the date and time they are written which may not be current. Also some symbols and/or links may be dropped from time to time without further update as the information/opinions mentioned simply become outdated. Please verify all claims and info, and do your own homework in addition.