You are manipulating the pe everytime you treat speculative earnings as if they are a done deal.
If the company reports 25 cents earnings (not being fully taxed in 2010) or higher $1.60 will look kind of cheap being slightly more than 6 times trailing. There is no risk in trailing earnings.
Of course tax rates going up is not a risk. It is a fact unless the company starts losing money.
An efficient market would have to be clairvoyant regarding the future. If an insider feels comfortably clairvoyant that is great but the market may not be so confident.
If the market is conservative about the company and who can say, the market may want to wait to see future news.
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