I see... From a charting standpoint there is so much congestion between here and 2000 that it is a little difficult to get a good feel for accurate resistance levels (speaking for myself). 1900 looks clear as bell to me, but thereafter are many gaps, starts and stops, etc. Very choppy to say the least...
yikes! wind speed (MPH) 165 gust 200 WNW 9 Movement 914 Pressure (in mb)
official roadmap keeps drifting westward
Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 38
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2004 there have been some gradual changes in the steering pattern over the last day or so which could result in the hurricane moving on a track not as close to South Florida. While this may be good news for South Florida...it is not so for other regions of the eastern Gulf Coast. Water vapor images show that a ridge of high pressure at the mid to upper-levels has developed from the Gulf of Mexico eastward across Florida. It appears that this ridge has been forcing the hurricane on a more westward track...delaying the expected northwest and northward turn. Although the northward turn is still forecast to occur as a weakness develops in the Gulf of Mexico...it is now expected to occur over extreme western Cuba and over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. This track increases the hurricane risk for the northeastern Gulf of Mexico region and decreases it for South Florida. The westward shift of the official forecast remains in agreement with guidance which has also been shifting gradually westward. As was thought possible...Ivan has regained category five strength. A reconnaissance plane just measured 161 knots at 700 mb and an extrapolated pressure of 914 mb. The drop measured 918 mb but it had 29 knots at the surface. Initial intensity has been increased to 145 knots. There are no skills in predicting changes in intensity with such extremely intense hurricanes...so Ivan is kept at 145 knots until landfall in Cuba. Thereafter...the shear is forecast to increase...so a gradual weakening is indicated. Nevertheless... Ivan is expected to reach the unites states as a major hurricane.
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