You are right about the "local weather guy" he (she) is usually a person that majored in Journalism and maybe minored in Meteorology at best. He has only the tools provided by the station at his disposal.
NOAA, on the other hand, has the very best people in the business. They have fleets of weather aircraft and satellites at their disposal. They have thousands of data collection points all over the globe and a super computer to crunch that data with.
I can think of enough times the experts have significantly missed their projected path that i know even they are not being "cocky" about Ivan as their own data bank supplies detailed stats on margins of error, and they are in a significant margin now for error this far out. And cripes they got a ton of humility with Charley as they quite simply blew that and have admitted the computer was WRONG as it underestimated the effect of an approaching high--computer said it would not effect projected path but instead it caused Charly to wobble stall and make a sharp turn to east as it also shrunk in size creating a fierce angular momentum effect turning Charly into a virtual tornado. The margin for error based on their own data in no way can keep La/Ala being eliminated. If this storm just passes west of center of Grand Cayman Island, i feel that small deviation from the projected course would alarm the experts and have them worried. The farther east of center of Grand Cayman the greater Florida need worry. But that position reading is not expected to 8am tomorrow----so i will check in then----
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