"I moved to Orlando (from Miami) because they never have any hurricanes in Orlando" Not only famous but true last words ===============================================================
Hi jr, Am I wrong in thinking that the Orlando area took some kind of a hit from Charley?
I was kind of out of it after Charley turned inland about 70 miles S of where I call home. <g>
I remember reading of your Andrew experiences on SI and know you still reside somewhere near Miami so I thought you might like you to read the following report from the highly regardedmeterologist/hurricane tracker D H Tolleris before you start inviting peeps down to SE Florida to escape Ivan's generally projected track up the gulf coast.
This is the ONLY person of the 11 thousand I have read today that is calling for a NE turn as Ivan leaves Jamaica and if he is right, your area may become infinitely more dangerous.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on this report if you're in a sharing frame of mind.
Good luck, jr. --------------------------------------------------------------
ANALYSIS: FORECAST DISCUSSIONS issued 830 AM EDT... AND 830PM (ONCE a TC crosses 60 W Longitude... there is a Midday update)
415 PM FRIDAY SEPT 10 -- BTW click ON THE MAPS to make them larger
yes even though at 11am TPC kept the IVAN forecast track the same -- and I assume at 400PM TPC will kept things the same way.. Based upon all the data that I see right now including the new 12z global models as well as the Hurricane Model guidance it is pretty clear to me to IVAN s going to make a fairly sharp time and probably do so to the EAST of the 83 degree longitude line and perhaps as far to the east as 80 degree longitude line.
Although the operational European from the 0z FRI was actually for the West and the last six runs of the European.... http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/gemglb_amer_12_panel.gifI think that idea is no longer valid since it was based upon the data from 7PM THURSDAY evening and the since then we have seen several runs of the hurricane models time further east with every cycle. In addition we now have the 12z global Models as well as the recent satellite imagery which make it pretty clear to me that IVAN is going to make a sharp turn as soon as he crosses Jamaica to the NW.
I am not yet ruling out a SW or west FL landfall BUT at this time a landfall in Southwest Florida possibly as far north as TAMPA BAY seems less likely. ..
12Z HURRICANE Models AGAIN with the east shift but the GFDL did not nor did the 12z UKMET
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif However there appears to be major developments with the OP GFS.... Now that we are within the high res of the OP GFS thru 84 hrs the last 3 runs of the GFS are now developing amazing consistency....
Of course you Know that I am NOT a big fan of the GFS but we are now in the time frame where the High model resoltiuon ( 0 to 84 hrs) is in effect and these last 3 runs CLOSELY MATCH the last several runs of the ECMWF. The first thing to note is how amazingly similar all three runs of the operational GFS are for the 12Z period of SEPT 13. This is a major improvement in the last few days with the GFS and closely matches the last several runs of the operational European excluding today's 12z FRIDAY run. Second they take IVAN into the FL straits with landfall over far southeast Fl between Key Largo and Homestead FL. This would place Miami in the eastern semi circle and possible in the eyewall
In addition the UKMET from 12z THURS which... like the CMC and Nogaps... showed a far western track into the eastern Gulf and up by Appalachicola shifted 300+ miles to the east in one run -- on 00z FRIDAY. Again this sort of shift tells me that the more eastward track is likely to be correct but at this time of course I cannot figure whether Ivan will turn up 82 west... 81W... 80W... or 79W... .
The Operational CMC from 00z FRI and now the 12z CMC is still furthest WEST but recall 00z Thursday it had Ivan as far west as 90 degrees W and hitting Moblie or New Orleans. Now it is JUST off Tampa bay at D4.5 and D5 ...making landfall juts east of Apalachicola.
The trend is more important than any 1 model at this point in time .
LASTLY the operational Nogaps over the last several runs -- even through 12z FRIDAY run -- continues to be the Western most model taking IVAN pass the far western TIP of Cuba!
I cannot see given IVAN's current track how he is going to pass the extreme western tip Cuba . One may argue or suggest that hurricane IVAN is going to move across central OR Western Cuba but I cannot see any logical reason for the hurricane to track so far west that he misses the extreme western tip! Thus for this reason I discounted Nogaps. If you recall the Nogaps performance with hurricane Frances... the runs out to D 6 consistently show Frances further east in any of the model and was the "out to sea" track or scenario.... only when we moved to within the 72 hour period the model made a huge shift and suddenly had landfall in the Miami area.
The overall synoptic pattern with the movement of hurricane Ivan north into the coastal areas of the SE sets up late true REX pattern with the deep trough will the western U.S. the ridge over the Northeast U.S. that extends out until western Atlantic and the ULL that is Ivan over the SE states. The operational GFS as well as some other models are indicating that he may get turn LEFT -- be it on the coast and hook left or Just inland and hook left even further ... as the Rex Block builds bringing a serious FLOOD to the southeast or perhaps even into the lower Middle Atlantic. I think this idea has a lot of merit and synoptic pattern certainly favors Ivan being trapped somewhere between Georgia and far southern VA for leased a few days
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