This is expected. China is going to do what it can and exert whatever influence necessary to keep U.S. missiles out of Turkmenistan. The Turkmenistan base will give the United States the ability to shoot down ascending missiles, supposedly from Iran, whose massive heat signature makes them easier targets, before they release their multiple warheads.
The U.S. policy is not just to contain Russia but to encircle both Russia and China. Might not these missile deployments be used also to this end?
If the US wants China's 'transformation' not to come at the expense of America's diminution, it needs a better policy than an aggressive posture that puts China on red alert 24/7. The best approach would help China modernize without turning it into a monster. #msg-3789844
This is beyond the crass mind of Bush and his shock and awe neocon handlers.
With the huge amount of weapons being employed and the nuclear arsenals being accumulated somebody better get the brains to use diplomacy.
Bush is making the very same mistake he has become famous for in Iraq, not considering the mindset of the Muslim sects that compose Iraq. Now this administration, the epitome of the myopic Western mind, has failed to comprehend the philosophy of the Eastern mind. To fall back into the same mistake that was made with Iraq and now China, to keep bumping your head against the wall, does not show much intelligence.
See also: Missile Defense To Tie U.S. To Iraq, Afghanistan, Caspian, Experts Warn #msg-3972175
-Am
Li: China willing to deepen ties with Turkmenistan
www.chinaview.cn 2004-09-06 20:23:24
¡¡BEIJING, Sept. 6 (Xinhuanet) -- A senior official of the Communist Party of China (CPC) said here Monday that China attaches great importance to developing its relations with Turkmenistan and will,as always, uphold the policy of "treating its neighbors as friendsand partners", so as to work for deepening bilateral friendly and cooperative relationship.
Li Chang chun, member of the Standing Committee of the PoliticalBureau of the CPC Central Committee, made the remarks when meetingwith a delegation of the Democratic Party of Turkmenistan led by its First Secretary Ondjik Musaev.
He said China and Turkmenistan have been good neighbors, good friends and good partners since time immemorial. The people of the two nations have been all along keeping a profound and traditional friendship.
Since the two countries established diplomatic ties 12 years ago, bilateral relations have progressed smoothly, with a huge cooperation potential and broad prospects in all fields, he said.
Li also spoke positively of inter-party exchanges between Chinaand Turkmenistan, noting that the CPC is willing to continue its efforts to strengthen and consolidate the relationship with the Turkmenistan Democratic Party and make contributions to developing the relations between the two nations in a new period on the basisof four principles of inter-party exchanges.
Musaev conveyed Turkmenistan President Saparmurad Atayevich Niyazov's cordial greetings to Chinese President Hu Jintao and other state leaders.
He spoke highly of the CPC for timely and successfully holding the Third International Conference of Asian Political Parties (ICAPP) and expressed his heartfelt congratulations.
The Turkmenistan Democratic Party values very much the friendly relationship with the CPC and is willing to further consolidate and enhance exchanges and cooperation between the two parties, so as to boost the relationship of mutual benefit and cooperation between the two countries, he said.
At the invitation of the CPC, the Turkmenistan Democratic Partydelegation attended the ICAPP held here from Sept. 3 to 5. Enditem
Analysis: NATO Cancels Planned Maneuvers In Azerbaijan
This may also give rise to a certain coolness between Brussels and Washington, in light of persistent rumors that the United States is considering Azerbaijan as a possible location for a rapid-reaction force.
Background: Azerbaijan is a key country in the ‘Grand Game’.
See also: Creating a New Cold War with China and Russia; Target is Iran not Iraq. #msg-1263010
To control, or dominate Iran, Bush has to encircle it: Afghanistan to the East, Turkey/Azerbaijan to the North, Iraq to the West, the South are already U.S. stooges. #msg-1263010
There is a growing military stand-off around the Caspian Sea which has left Azerbaijan in the middle as Washington and Teheran compete for influence in the strategic region. Washington says its military presence is designed to help protect Azerbaijan’s oil infrastructure. The United States is backing a major project to export Azeri oil from the Caspian Sea -- home to some of the world’s biggest untapped oil and gas reserves -- to international markets. But Iran is suspicious of Washington’s motives, particularly after being branded as part of an “axis of evil” by President George W. Bush. #msg-3833449
Bush would like to increase U.S. influence in Azerbaijan not only to protect Azerbaijan’s oil infrastructure but also to use Azerbaijan as a base from which to deploy missiles in order to cover Iraq. Please picture how happy Russia and China must be at this prospect and at what point will they finally turn on the United States?
To ensure full coverage of Iranian territory, they will have to be deployed in either in Turkmenistan and the Gulf, eastern Iraq and western Afghanistan, or in all four locations, according to the report.
A study by the American Physical Society issued last year pointed to a floating launch platform in the Caspian Sea, or a base in Azerbaijan, as another viable solution.
The bases will hardly be small. Each of them will likely house three mobile launchers with two interceptors each, noted congressional officials. #msg-3972175
Iran’s President Mohammad Khatami recently visited Azerbaijan for talks which focused on Teheran’s unease with the growing American military presence in the oil-rich Caspian Sea state.
Khatami had talks with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, at the start of the first visit of an Iranian leader to the pro-Western neighboring republic in over a decade.
The official portion of the visit saw the two sides sign 10 documents, according to officials. They included a joint declaration on the Caspian as well as initiatives to boost trade and economic cooperation. #msg-3833449 #msg-3882295
-Am
Analysis: NATO Cancels Planned Maneuvers In Azerbaijan By Liz Fuller
13 September 2004 -- NATO's Cooperative Best Effort-2004 exercises, scheduled to take place on 14-27 September in Azerbaijan, have been canceled, according to a NATO press release of 13 September.
"We regret that the principle of inclusiveness could not be upheld in this case," the press release stated, without elaborating. But Lieutenant-Colonel Ludger Terbrueggen, who is a spokesman for NATO military command, told RFE/RL's Armenian Service the same day that "the reason...is that Azerbaijan did not grant visas to soldiers and officers of Armenia."
Since January, Baku has sought repeatedly to thwart the planned Armenian presence at this year's Cooperative Best Effort maneuvers. Three Armenian military officers who tried to travel to Baku in early January first from Turkey and then from Georgia to attend a planning conference for the maneuvers were prevented from doing so. In June, members of the radical Karabakh Liberation Organization (QAT) picketed, and then forced their way into, a Baku hotel where two Armenian officers were attending a second planning conference in preparation for the exercises. Five of those QAT activists were arrested and sentenced in late August to between three and five years' imprisonment on charges of hooliganism, violating public order, and obstructing government officials. Those verdicts triggered protests from across the political spectrum, fueling public opposition to the Armenians' anticipated arrival.
In April, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev assured Deputy Commander of the U.S. European Command General Charles Wald that there were no obstacles to the Armenian participation in the September war games. Other visiting U.S. officials also sought to impress on Azerbaijan the importance of allowing the Armenian contingent to attend. But in recent weeks, the Azerbaijani government has made increasingly clear its hostility to the planned Armenian participation. On 27 July, the independent ANS TV quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov as saying that Baku has stipulated that only noncombat personnel -- military journalists, public-relations officials, and military doctors -- would be permitted to attend, and that the number of Armenian participants would be limited to three. (On 4 September, however, Armenian Deputy Defense Minister Major General Artur Aghabekian said seven Armenian officers would take part in the exercises, while the number denied visas by the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tbilisi was given as five.)
The opposition daily "Azadlig" on 10 September quoted Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov as saying that Azerbaijan would not grant visas to the Armenians. And on 10 September, the Azerbaijani parliament adopted an appeal to NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer to retract the invitation extended to the Armenian side, citing what it termed Armenia's aggression and policy of ethnic cleansing. The parliamentarians argued that the presence in Baku of Armenian military personnel could aggravate tensions in the region. President Aliyev stated while visiting the Barda region on 11 September, "I do not want the Armenians to come to Azerbaijan."
In an apparent last-ditch effort to persuade Baku to abandon its obstructionist approach, de Hoop Scheffer summoned Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Mammadyarov and his Armenian counterpart Vartan Oskanian to Brussels on 13 September for talks. Oskanian subsequently praised the NATO decision to call off the exercises, adding at the same time that he regrets the "lost opportunity for regional cooperation."
Armenia hosted the NATO Cooperative Best Effort-2003 exercises, in which some 400 troops from 19 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, Georgia, and Turkey practiced routine peacekeeping exercises. Azerbaijan declined to participate. In February 2004, a junior Azerbaijani officer attending a NATO-sponsored English language course in Budapest hacked a sleeping Armenian fellow student to death with an axe.
The full impact of Azerbaijan's violation of NATO's "principle of inclusiveness" and of NATO's ensuing decision to cancel the planned exercises is difficult to predict. The move is likely to corroborate many Azerbaijanis' conviction that NATO is guilty of double standards and bias toward Armenia. It may also give rise to a certain coolness between Brussels and Washington, in light of persistent rumors that the United States is considering Azerbaijan as a possible location for a rapid-reaction force. Certainly the prediction by one Western analyst that "Azerbaijan will enter NATO by 2005," which made headlines in the Azerbaijani press in July 2002, now seems somewhat overoptimistic. author biography
Russia to Maintain Nuclear Parity with US — DM Ivanov Created: 01.10.2004 17:34 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 17:59 MSK, 7 hours 42 minutes ago
See also: Missile Defense To Tie U.S. To Iraq, Afghanistan, Caspian, #msg-3972175
In the first step toward erecting a multibillion-dollar shield to protect the United States from foreign missiles, the U.S. Navy will begin deploying state-of-the-art destroyers to patrol the waters off North Korea as early as next week. #msg-4129889
"However, the very geography of the radar in Greenland gives us reasons to think that even at this stage the US missile defence could potentially threaten Russia's national security."
Reports earlier this year that Washington planned to deploy elements of its missile shield on the territories of new NATO members in Eastern and Central Europe alarmed Moscow. #msg-3767753
Can't blame Russia, Bush is putting missiles everywhere.
-Am
Russia will purchase four new nuclear-capable inter-continental ballistic missiles next year as part of its plans to maintain the nuclear balance with the United States, its defense minister said on Friday.
“We will purchase as many as is necessary to maintain genuine nuclear parity —- not parity as we had in the Cold War but taking into account the security interests of the state,” Interfax news agency quoted Sergei Ivanov as saying.
He said the four new rockets would be ground-based and would play their part in Russia’s overall nuclear defenses that also include sea- and air-delivered nuclear systems.
President Vladimir Putin sees as a priority the modernization of Russia’s armed forces, aimed at turning the neglected and ineffective monster, inherited from the Soviet Union, into a compact and sophisticated battle force.
Upgrading Russia’s nuclear arsenal, most of which is about to serve out its term, is one of the key tasks set by Putin.
Russia’s military budget has considerably grown since Putin came to power in 2000. More than 470 billion roubles ($16 billion) has been allocated for the defense sector in a draft budget currently under consideration by parliament.
Top Russian military officials say increased spending allows them to place orders for new arms and military hardware unprecedented in post-Soviet Russia.
General Alexei Moskovsky, deputy defence minister in charge of arms procurement, told Interfax news agency earlier this month that the planned 2005 purchases included 300 items, including new Topol-M intercontinental missiles, one TU-160 strategic bomber, several fighter jets and military helicopters.
Again with the “Bring 'em on,” or “you fire” crap, Bush doesn’t seem to catch on.
"We want to continue to perfect this system, so we say to those tyrants who believe they can blackmail America and the free world: you fire; we're going to shoot it down," he said in a stop at Ridley Park, Penn., on Aug. 17.
First customer, Russia, is going to “Bring 'em on” and is now seeking to maintain nuclear parity with the United States. #msg-4182935
-Am
Questions Remain on U.S. Missile Defense
Updated 8:48 PM ET October 3, 2004
By JOHN J. LUMPKIN
WASHINGTON (AP) - The military is in the final stages of readying its national ballistic missile defense system, with officials predicting it will be activated before year's end. But several questions remain, including how well the experimental missile interceptors work.
The Pentagon maintains that any defense against intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) is better than none. Critics contend the Bush administration is vastly overselling an expensive, unproven defense system.
There has been an expectation that the administration will shortly declare that the missile defense system is operational and on alert. Military officials said they know of no specific plans for such an announcement.
Such an announcement would have political and strategic value for the administration.
To those who believe it will work, activating the system would fulfill a pledge by President Bush to have an operational missile defense system by the end of 2004. Such an announcement would also have greater value if it came before the Nov. 2 elections.
Bush has promoted the system while campaigning for re-election.
"We want to continue to perfect this system, so we say to those tyrants who believe they can blackmail America and the free world: you fire; we're going to shoot it down," he said in a stop at Ridley Park, Penn., on Aug. 17.
Military officials are less sanguine, stressing that the initial system will be modest and limited in capability, but will improve over time.
Critics of the system, such as Philip Coyle, the Pentagon's former chief of testing, say Bush is wrong.
"Of course we don't have any capability to do that," he said. "For the president to sort of dare them (to fire missiles) is really misleading and even reckless."
Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry has said that, if elected, he would proceed more slowly with the missile defense system and take time for additional testing.
Estimates vary widely on how much the program will cost over its lifetime, with some reaching $100 billion or more. In 2004 and 2005, the Missile Defense Agency expects to spend a total of more than $10 billion.
Many of the doubts about the system, initially designed to protect the United States from an ICBM attack from North Korea and other possible threats in the western Pacific, arise from problems during high-profile tests.
In testing, which critics deride as highly scripted, the interceptors have gone five-for-eight when launched at target missiles.
Two tests scheduled for this year have been delayed due to recently discovered technical problems. The next test is now set for late November or early December, so it is unclear if it will take place before interceptors in Alaska go on alert. The test after that will take place in early 2005.
"In terms of political symbolism, the bottom line is that President Bush has met his commitment of four years ago to deploy an operational defense of the nation," said Loren Thompson, a military analyst at the Lexington Institute think tank in Washington.
"In terms of operational realities, it is a very rudimentary system that requires much further testing and could not stop a substantial attack against the nation," Thompson said.
The military has five interceptors in underground silos at Fort Greely in central Alaska, with plans to add one more by mid-October, and an additional 10 by the end of 2005.
Two interceptors will be put in the ground at a backup site, Vandenburg Air Force Base, Calif., in the next month, plus two more by the end of the next year.
A tracking radar on the Aleutian island of Shemya, and an early-warning radar at Beale Air Force Base, Calif., are both ready, as are command centers at Colorado Springs, Colo., and at Fort Greely, said Rick Lehner, a spokesman for the Missile Defense Agency.
A Navy destroyer has begun patrolling the Sea of Japan with a newly upgraded Aegis radar capable of tracking any North Korean missile launches and feeding information into the missile defense network.
But some of these various pieces of the system are not yet linked to one another, Lehner said. He and other officials could not provide a specific time when the system will be ready in the coming months.
A major piece of the sensor network, an X-band radar system that will be mounted on a converted oil-drilling rig, is not expected to be ready for operational testing until the end of next year.
The high-resolution radar, which the military claims will be capable of discriminating targets from decoys far better than others in the sensor network, will be mounted on a mobile, converted oil-drilling rig, and will move to the Pacific and join the system. A new network of early-warning satellites would also substantially boost the military's ability to track a ballistic missile launch, officials say.
Also unsettled is the military's doctrine and authorities for launching the interceptors in a crisis _ although such policies are expected to be decided on during the next few weeks.
Because an ICBM launched from Asia could reach the United States in less than half an hour, military officers may have to make quick decisions if an attack is under way. Such doctrine is intended to assist what the general in charge should do if, for example, the number of inbound missiles exceeded the number of interceptors available.
On the strategic end, Pentagon officials say they expect the existence of the system would serve to deter North Korea from using any ICBMs to attack, because the country's leaders would calculate their chance of successfully hitting a U.S. target as lower.
North Korea, which intelligence officials believe has an untested intercontinental ballistic missile, is regarded as the most immediate threat.
In the longer term, Iran could develop missiles capable of reaching the United States, officials say.
A radar in Britain, once it is upgraded in 2005, will allow Alaskan-based interceptors to target missiles launched from the Mideast across Europe toward North America, officials have said. In August, the administration also signed an agreement with Denmark and Greenland to upgrade a radar station at Thule, Greenland, which will also be a part of an Atlantic missile defense sensor network.
In addition, the Pentagon is in preliminary talks with Poland and possibly other Eastern European countries about the possibility of putting interceptors there. These could protect Europe as well as intercept U.S.-bound missiles earlier in flight.
China, meanwhile, which also has a small ICBM force _ perhaps 20 missiles, according to intelligence estimates _ has been fairly quiet about U.S. missile defense plans, Pentagon officials say. China, however, is modernizing and expanding its missile force beyond what near-term U.S. plans for missile defenses could stop.
Bush would like to surround Iran with missiles placing them in Iraq and Turkmenistan among other places. A Russian base in Tajikistan would put the Russians on Bush’s tail.
"It raises issues of basing it in places like Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Iraq or the Caspian Sea," the Rhode Island senator told AFP. "And that introduces geopolitical considerations."
While key variables remain unknown, experts agree that if Iran, as expected, produces an intercontinental ballistic missile sometime within the next decade, the United States will not be able to counter it just from ships patrolling the Gulf.
"Discussions are underway with international partners on ways in which they may be able to cooperate," replied a defense official when asked whether the governments of Iraq, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan had already been approached. #msg-397217
-Am
Russia may establish military base in Tajikistan
RBC, 08.10.2004, Dushanbe 15:55:58.The Russian division located in Tajikistan will be developed into a military base with the help of aviation. "This may happen in the near future," highly ranked Russian commander Evgeny Yuryev said. According to him, a corresponding decree will be signed by Russian top officials. "A month ago we have agreed on the relocation of this military base with Tajikistani Defense Minister Sherali Khayrullayev," Yuryev said. He hopes that the final decision on the relocation of the Russian military base will be made in late October.
Bush is not only trying to control the flow of oil in the Caspian largely through NATO he is toying with the notion of putting a floating launch platform in the Caspian Sea, or a base in Azerbaijan, as another viable solution. This is an ‘in your face’ move bordering on attack and as such I would expect the countries of the Caspian to take a defensive posture.
This seems an announcement that Kazakhstan will cooperate with Iran one of the more important littoral states.
-Am
Kazakhstan to set up Navy in Caspian
January 6, 2004
Kazakhstan intends to set up its Navy in the Caspian Sea, the Kazakh Defense Minister Mukhtar Altinbayev said. He underlined that such an intention is based on the principles of friendship and neighborhood.
"The Caspian Sea must be turned into the sea of peace, friendship and kindness," said Altinbayev, noting that his country is ready to cooperate with all Caspian littoral states on security issues.
The Kazakh official added that Russia will assist Kazakhstan in establishing the Navy, ensuring security and training personnel.
Reference: The reasons for NATO's eastward expansion are largely economic. For instance, NATO's military access and control over Eastern Europe helps Western European corporations to secure strategic energy resources, such as oil from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia . The US and Western European corporations will greatly benefit from NATO's control of the oil corridor through the Caucasus Mountains . NATO wants its troops to patrol this pipeline and to dominate the Armenian/Russian route to the Caspian Sea . The Caucasus also links the Adriatic-Ceyhan-Baku pipeline with oil-rich countries even farther east, in the former Soviet Central Asia republics of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan . Billions of dollars in oil may someday flow through these corridors to Western Europe for the benefit of Western-based oil companies. #msg-2898066
"It's just that they are throwing huge amounts of money trying to get the technology up and running without thinking clearly about the system they are going to construct," complained Jack Reed, the ranking Democrat of the US Senate Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee.
"It raises issues of basing it in places like Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Iraq or the Caspian Sea," the Rhode Island senator told AFP. "And that introduces geopolitical considerations."
While key variables remain unknown, experts agree that if Iran, as expected, produces an intercontinental ballistic missile sometime within the next decade, the United States will not be able to counter it just from ships patrolling the Gulf.
A study by the American Physical Society issued last year pointed to a floating launch platform in the Caspian Sea, or a base in Azerbaijan, as another viable solution. #msg-3972175
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