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Replies to #81063 on Biotech Values
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srsmgja

07/20/09 8:50 AM

#81075 RE: DewDiligence #81063

Just a quotes from the WSJ June 17, " Price Increases Help Biogen Lift Revenue".

<< Biogen, one of the largest biotechnology companies, boosted revenue 10%, AIDED GREATLY BY A 22% PRICE INCREASE over the past 12 months for MS drug Avonex. Biogen last raised Avonex's price in March , by about 9%.>>

<<Avonex, introduced in 1996, costs about $26,400 a year, up 53% from the second quarter of 2007.>>

<<Two other MS drugs also saw sharp increases. Rebif, marketed by PFE and Merck KGaA, rose 17%

COPAXONE, SOLD BY TEVA, ROSE 33%, MEDICAID SAID. BOTH DRUGS COST ABOUT $30,000 FOR A YEARS'S TREATMENT.>>


<<ON A CONFERENCE CALL WITH INVESTORS, BIOGEN'S COO, ROBERT HAMM, SAID THE COMPANY DOUBTED IT WOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE RAISING AVONEX's PRICE>>




In summary, the WSJ article confirms what I posted a few months ago (and disputed by our moderator):


1. The great magority of sales volume increase in Copaxone has been due to PRICE INCREASES NOT UNIT SALES.

2. Sales volume based on price increases are not sustainable in today's health care environment.

3. All MS therapies are now close to being equally priced.

4. Copaxone's sales will continue to look great this year as last years large price increases make comparisons rosey.

5. Look for a large decrease in Copaxone's sales growth next year as it will then have to drive sales growth more on UNIT sales instead of price increases.




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srsmgja

07/20/09 9:00 AM

#81076 RE: DewDiligence #81063

<< The cumulative growth rate in US Tysabri sales over the past 3 quartes has been 2.5%...........>>


Very cute, but superficial job of lumping statistics to one's advantage. You lumped this quarter's numbers with the two weakest quarters.

If you remember, our 'gentleman's bet' concerned Tysabri's sales growth GOING FOWARD from last quarter. I do beleive I am well ahead of my predictions (if you care to reference). That increase is even in the face of additonal confoirmed PML cases.

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genisi

08/06/09 4:10 PM

#81959 RE: DewDiligence #81063

BIIB ELN - Elan sues as Biogen seeks control over Tysabri

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN0631736820090806?rpc=401&