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tregaron

07/08/09 4:21 PM

#27306 RE: K-G #27305

OT: Bigworld, Tregaron,
We've had some drop in gold and oil, and the VIX & VXO have moved up considerably. Do you think the fall will continue, or is this a good time to buy...


I don't see too much positive at the moment. We continue to break through support levels, so I'm not ready to call the bottom of this move. I HOPE we will see some firming up soon, but it wouldn't surprise me if we drop another 10% on the S&P. And this is predicated on the expectation that we'll have another leg up in this bear market rally. In reality we may get nothing more than a weak test of recent highs before plunging lower.
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bigworld

07/10/09 12:24 AM

#27330 RE: K-G #27305

OT to K-G: There is about another 5-7% on the downside for the major market averages, and certain volatile sectors might fall an additional 10% from today's close. Hold tight for now. We will have at least one and perhaps two very strong down days in the market before the end of July. The S&P has to drop to the 820-840 range to take out stop orders and trigger sell programs. The VIX and VXO might not quite hit 40 but they should come close. At that point you can go "all in", including buying on margin if you are so inclined. The upcoming rally will be similar to previous post-crash boomerang rallies as seen in 1906-1909 and during the Great Depression. While powerful, the rally will be short lived and to profit from it you won't be able to wait for confirming signals, etc. I've been buying more GDX for my own account and for my wife's roll-over IRA, and I am so confident in the upcoming rally in gold that I even moved a portion of my 86 year old mother's funds into GDX. Even if GDX drops further, it will only be temporary and the rally will take GDX to at least $80 a share and there is an outside chance that it goes to $100 if a real inflation scare gets promoted by the financial media. Look at how high oil rose last year. GDX could go parabolic in the latter stage of the rally, in which case I'll make money all the way up and then I'll make it again on the short side as it retreats like all bubbles. The next two to three months are going to be exhilirating. And I can use all the profits I can find because COR looks like it's eventually headed to the pink sheets (or worse).