Putin Target, Airliners May Have Been Intercepted.
Russia air tragedy: Was Putin the target?
Considering that one of the planes was headed for Sochi where Putin was vacationing they may have been intercepted.
-Am
Fred Weir Moscow, August 27
Russian authorities are suggesting that the accident in which two passenger liners crashed almost simultaneously and killed 90 passengers was a freak coincidence. But other experts say it was most likely a calculated act of terrorism designed to disrupt elections in Chechnya this Sunday.
Most startling is the theory that the airliners had been part of a September 11-style hijack-cum-suicide attack whose target was the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.
Independent experts say the twin Tuesday night high-altitude disasters were more likely caused by onboard sabotage or, perhaps, interception by Russian air defences aiming to prevent terrorist hijackers from using the aircraft in a 9/11-style attack.
Fueling the theory that Putin was the target is that one of the planes that went down Tuesday was headed for Sochi, where Putin was vacationing at the time. The other plane was also headed south when it fell from radar screens.
Earlier this month a senior Russian air defence official, Colonel-General Yury Solovyov, warned that terrorists could hijack a plane at any Moscow airport and reach the Kremlin in about 40 seconds.
If it was terrorism, the destruction of the two airliners fits into a pattern of deadly bombings of buildings, trains and subway cars —- for which typically no one takes responsibility — that has plagued Russia since the latest war against separatist Chechnya began in 1999.
Moscow preferred to not talk of terrorism.
"The main line of inquiry we are following is violation of the rules of operating civil aircraft," said Sergei Ignatchenko, spokesperson for the Federal Security Service, which is investigating the accidents. "We are also examining the possibility of a terrorist act, but we have no evidence to support this."
Russia's crumbling civil air fleet faces daily hazards from metal fatigue, maintenance deficits and ill-trained crew.
Ignatenko said that adulterated fuel — a common consequence of cost-cutting and corruption in Russian airports — may have caused the crashes.
Analysts say authorities may be stressing the accident theory to avoid public panic in the runup to Sunday's presidential elections in Chechnya.
"Of course this series of events cannot seriously be ascribed to coincidence," says Sergei Kazyonnov of the independent Institute of National Security and Strategic Research. "Everyone understands that this is a political situation".
The crash of the two Russian airliners is Putin’s Pearl Harbor. Just as Bush waited for a gift or an opening such as the attacks of September 11 in order to implement his heinous agenda so must Putin have waited. #msg-3891080
-Rion
MOSCOW - The Kremlin has finally committed to the idea that Chechen extremists, with possible foreign terrorist connections, downed two Russian passenger airliners last week. What Russia's security forces may or may not prove in their investigations is unclear, given conclusions concerning past terrorist attacks.
However, irrespective of the findings, the Kremlin may start on a new offensive against terrorism that may see changes in how Russia fights terrorism, and a probable renewed anti-terrorist alliance with the United States.
High profile acts of terrorism change how governments and their leaders see the world. The tragic events of September 11, 2001 altered America more than any event since the attack on Pearl Harbor. Russia is no different, though with nuances. President Vladimir Putin has been slow to make any dramatic changes in the two Soviet-era institutions from which he derives important political support - the security forces and the military.
Both have served him well politically, but in terms of fighting the high priority issue of terrorism, the results are mixed at best. Large and small terrorist acts continue to be committed in Russia and the conflict in Chechnya is nothing more than a grinding war of attrition. The security forces and the military have not failed Putin, though neither has made him shine at home or aboard. The tragic loss of two civilian airliners and the lives of 89 people may give him an opening to change this.
There is every indication that Putin ordered the security forces to admit that the loss of the two planes was indeed an act of terrorism. The electronic media was way ahead of the Kremlin on this issue. The fact that two planes were lost at almost same time without invoking the possibility of terrorism was a coincidence that insulted the intelligence of the average Russian. Putin, probably with the botched Kremlin public relations reaction to loss of the nuclear submarine Kursk early in his presidency in mind, decided to appear as open as possible. Putin gave his subordinates a day to get their story straight - then informed them of how the plot would continue.
Others have speculated on who organized and carried out the destruction of the two planes and all lives aboard, as well as for what specific purpose. In the larger scheme of things, exactly who committed this crime may not be overly important. The fact that terrorist acts are believed to have been committed is what is now at issue. In much the same way Putin called his American counter on September 11, Putin may now re-address how Russia fights domestic and international terrorism and ask the man he called as the World Trade Center and the Pentagon burned for advice. This call will most likely be gladly listened to in Washington.
Putin's decision to come clean on the loss of the two planes may be a sign of a policy design he has been considering for a while. First, the security forces are being remarkably efficient in breaking the back of erstwhile oligarchs challenging the Kremlin's control of the economy and delivering the crown jewel of the oil sector, Yukos, to state control. The security forces' success in war-torn Chechnya has not been as successful. Militant Chechen and related terrorist acts remain a stain on the forces completely devoted to the president and his policy agendas.
Second, the military has largely distanced itself from current operations in Chechnya. The first Chechen war bloodied its nose; control of the second war was gladly given over to the security forces. However, that change in control has not changed the mindset of the military. This all may change. The recent shake-up in the military's command structure creates an opening for Putin to re-assert his Defense Ministry's vision of a military that is modern, small, highly motivated, disciplined, and most importantly, effective. The security forces really blew it when they could not stop terrorists boarding planes last week. Ivanov's changing military will most probably claim it can now do better.
Further, with Putin coming clean, it demonstrates that he again is on the political offensive. Issues that he believes to be Russia- specific, like the Yukos affair, remain that - meaning off-limits for foreigners to pass judgment. Terrorism is an entirely different issue. Calling a terrorist act for what it is also reassures Russians that the world the Kremlin wants them to know about in the electronic media is in sync with reality.
Concerning the US and its "war against terrorism", President George W Bush and Putin are strange political bedfellows, but given events both have every reason to find common political cause. More often now American and Russia foreign policy objectives meet, be it the rumor that Russia may support America's war effort in Iraq by supplying 40,000 troops; establishing a long-term energy strategy (irrespective of the short-term consequences of what is called the "Yukos affair"); a joint effort dealing with Iranian and Chinese activist foreign policies; as well as Russia's openness to the establishment of a large American military presence in Central Asia to combat Islamic militancy.
Like September 11 was a wake-up call for the US, the loss of two passenger planes to terrorism last week may be a wake-up call for Putin. The way Russia has fought terrorism (domestic and international) has been less than effective. Putin now has the opportunity shake up his own security and military establishments to not only fight a more modern war against international terrorism, but also to create a truly meaningful trans-Atlantic front in this struggle.
Peter Lavelle is an independent Moscow-based analyst and the author of the electronic newsletter on Russia "Untimely Thoughts" - untimely-thoughts.com.
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