For those of you that like looking at highly speculative stocks, today I put on a position in ISTA. The usual disclaimers apply and I want to disclose that I've only scratched the surface when it comes to proper due diligence and so buyer beware. The stock is thinly traded and so patience is required but the FDA panel meeting is this Friday. A negative vote will have a very negative impact on this stock so don't get in over your head.
That being said, I really like the upside potential of this company. They focus on eye medicines and they have an FDA panel meeting this Friday for a drug called Bepreve (Bepotastine). http://www.fda.gov/AdvisoryCommittees/Calendar/ucm164111.htm
The main reason why I like their chances is that the drug has been approved in Japan since 2000/2002. In Japan the drug is called Talion and according to my research, the drug did approx. 10.8 billion yen in sales in Japan in 2008. That converts to approx. 112 million US dollars. You should also note that Japan has a little less then half the population of the US and so potential sales could be double the Japan amount. Here's a nice article explaining the drug and it's chances. http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=984181
And here's the earnings report from Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation (the rights owner in Japan); chart number 4 or page 19 shows the Talion sales numbers and projections. Growth in sales of Talion has also been strong. You can search the PDF for Talion to find the charts also. http://www.mt-pharma.co.jp/e/ir/data/mtpc/2103/pdf/e2008_1stQ.pdf
You should also note that last September they did a financing deal for 65 million dollars and attached to that are 12.5 million warrants at 1.41. Therefore, the shares outstanding number is better analyzed by adding this 12.5 million shares to the shares outstanding number of 33 million for a total of 46 million shares outstanding. The market cap must be adjusted accordingly. http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080930/ista8-k.html
Balance sheet looks decent thanks in large part to the recent financing (high long term debt though) and the company is forcast to do 100 million in sales this year so they do have other revenue streams, though one of their drugs is coming off patent in 2 or 3 years I believe. The stock hit a crazy low during the November market sell off so please keep in mind that there is a little bit of air beneath the stock price. They do have other interesting drugs in the pipeline as well.
And once again, this is a highly speculative stock so please treat it that way.
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