Replies to post #79634 on Biotech Values

[ariadndndough]

dew
i have a postion in mrk but agree with you looks bearish for now, to many recent failures. i think the yield and pending merger will keep mrk from going much lower. still feel mrk has one of the best pipelines going forward and along with sgp. 1-3 years out we have very good stock, i collect the dividend why i wait

dough

[DewDiligence]

MRK – Yield curve for corporate bonds:

MRK just issued $4.25B of debt to help pay for the SGP acquisition. The terms show the steepness of the yield curve for high-grade corporate bonds (which mimics the steepness of the yield curve for T-bonds).

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Merck-Prices-425-Billion-Debt-bw-1301927242.html

››
$1.25 billion of 1.875% notes due 2011
$1.00 billion of 4.00% notes due 2015
$1.25 billion of 5.00% notes due 2019
$0.75 billion of 5.85% notes due 2039
‹‹

MRK’s bonds thus have the following yield curve:

 
 Years to  Interest 
 Maturity    Rate   
    2        1.9% 
    6        4.0% 
   10        5.0% 
   30        5.9% 

[DewDiligence]

MRK – Goldman’s biotech analyst, Jamie Rubin, had a sex-change
operation, evidently. Perhaps more important, she (he?) is more
bullish on MRK than I am (#msg-38786542).

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Merck-shares-rise-on-Goldman-apf-1138218076.html?x=0&.v=1

Merck Shares Rise on Goldman Sachs 'Buy' Rating

Goldman Sachs analyst Jami Rubin moved the stock to "Buy" from "Not Rated" saying the stock is currently valued at a 30 percent discount to the market. That sets it up to outperform the market over the next 12 months, he said, in a note to investors… Rubin expects shares to reach $38 over the next 12 months.

"With an expanded pipeline and historical precedence to exceed cost-cutting expectations, the potential for accelerating new revenue growth could drive significant bottom-line leverage: a recurrence of the upswing following Vioxx in late 2005," he said.

He said the upswing is not a given, but a mix of factors, including the management team's experience, has the ability to surprise Wall Street.

[DewDiligence]

MRK Wins Singulair US Patent Case

[Although Singulair goes off-patent in the US in Aug 2012, a premature loss of patent protection would have cost MRK as much as $9B in cumulative revenues because Singulair is MRK’s largest-selling drug. With this patent win, there is one fewer reason to dislike MRK as an investment, but other reasons to dislike it remain intact (#msg-38786542).]

http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=INN1250608420090819

›Wed Aug 19, 2009 11:49am EDT
By Ransdell Pierson

NEW YORK, Aug 19 (Reuters) - A U.S. federal judge upheld the validity of a patent on Merck & Co Inc's asthma and allergy drug Singulair on Wednesday, dealing a blow to Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd, which wanted to introduce a generic copy.

Merck's shares rose 2.18 percent to $31.38. [It closed at 31.45, +2.5%.]

The court found that Teva infringed Merck's patent and ordered that a permanent injunction be issued to restrain Teva from manufacturing or selling a generic version of Singulair -- Merck's biggest product -- until the patent expires in 2012.

Teva challenged the validity of patent '473 during a trial in February before Judge Garrett Brown in Newark federal court in New Jersey.

Had Teva prevailed, its generic version would have blown a hole in Singulair's annual U.S. sales of about $3 billion.

The ruling also resolves a second lawsuit filed by Merck against Teva in January, said Merck spokesman Ronald Rogers.

That lawsuit related to Teva's application to sell an oral granule formulation that can be dissolved in baby formula, breast milk, applesauce or ice-cream for children, he said.

Teva is reviewing the court's decision to determine its next course of action, the company said in a statement.

Singulair had world-wide sales of $4.3 billion in 2008, including both formulations of the drug. [Actually, there are three formulations: the regular tablet, the chewable tablet, and the dissolving granule.]

Teva applied for U.S. approval for a generic version of Singulair in 2007. Merck responded by suing Teva for patent infringement, which barred the FDA from approving a generic for 30 months, or until a court decision.‹