As mentioned in my previous update with which this post replies (in case anyone is wondering why I always reply to my previous weeks post, it is because it creates a daisy chain to all past updates so that one could just hit the previous message that the current post responds to and go back in time and track my accuracy of previous updates), I mentioned " If we can get through 1840, then we have an even stonger resistance area at the 1865-1900 level to contend with. These will be tough obstacles to overcome, but if we do not get any extraordinary surprises I believe the overall trend will remain to the upside.". So far so good! We dealt with COMPQ 1840 and moved on up to test the 1865 area twice on Friday the 27th before settling in and finishing out at 1862... While volume has been rather pathetic, if we get a little more help from the stabilization of oil prices we should be able to begin to negotiate with the overhead resistance of the 1865-1900 area. Before we get into that, let's review the Econ #'s for the week...
While we received some mixed messages from the housing sector as Existing and New Home Sales came in a little less than market expectations, Durable Orders shot up and revised GDP and Michigan Sentiment came in slightly higher than expected. Initial Jobless Claims rose by 10K, but all in all not a bad week for Econ #'s in the middle of summer.
As for next week we have a full plate before us beginning with Personal Income & Spending, Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, Auto & Truck Sales, Construction Spending, ISM Index & Services, Productivity, Factory Orders, Average Workweek, Hourly Earnings, Initial Jobless Claims, Unemployment Rate and the all important Nonfarm Payrolls. A very busy week indeed...
So what can we expect for the week to ahead? We have the RNC convention all of next week that may or may not play a part in market sentiment, but I believe a lot will be riding on the coming Econ #'s this week and depending on how these numbers go so will the market. Along with that we are getting close to overbought territory on the COMPQ, but we are not quite there yet. We also have a couple of mini turns that may or may not show up on the radar screen which are scheduled on/around Sept 2nd and Sept 6th. These may morph into one turn date, may be a continuation pattern or could quite possibly play some kind of role in us getting a slight pull back. My gut feeling or GA (Gut Analysis) says we will see upside early in the week and then will weaken into the Labor Day weekend, but that is my GA and nothing more, just a gut feeling...
Below I have a few COMPQ charts to present, one of which shows a possible H&S pattern in the works which I posted in last weeks update. Another is a chart of what we presently face and the last being a generic chart of where we are now.
NOTE: At this time I am still holding my UOPIX position
Disclaimer: This disclosure is not a recommendation to buy or sell or to do as I do. It is to let people know what I think about current market conditions, what it is that I am doing and is for no other purpose than to create a track record.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
