Replies to post #37496 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[bigworld]

FLGLF4: You're probably right, statistically speaking. Those options are pretty much on the radar for every small cash-strapped biotech. 98% of them never come up with a deal, so they PIPE you. What else can they do? PPHM was lucky they were able to borrow money last time in this difficult financing environment. PPHM would not be considered too big to fail, thus they're not eligible for free government money. In my years of biotech investing I've been hit in the head with so many PIPES I'm surprised I'm still alive. Biotech is not for the impatient, and it is smart not to risk any more than you can afford to lose. It isn't really investing, it's gambling. But it is interesting. It would be nice if PPHM could be one of the few success stories.

[geocappy1]

My guess is number 3 is off the table unless they can sell Avid for enough and want to pay off the 1st $5M loan and forego the 2nd $5M. If I remember right all pphm assets are pledged for the loan. Unless of course the lenders are willing to release Avid from the loan. My guess is they have their money via the $7.5M (sale thru Wm. Smith & Co.) to private investors if need be should other options not work out.

[volgoat]

merger

way too much vol now for a pipe, afterhours, pre market, regular hours...

Vol Vol Vol


75k so far in ah's tonight.

[realist1]

RE "financing solutions is most likely to happen"

Either 1 or 4 or something in between.
I've given much thought to what may be going on these lasts weeks. Here's what I've come up with, my opinion, my theory, whatever you want to call it. There was a "perfect storm", a combination of events which led to PPHM's jump last Thursday probably by an entity(s) preparing to short for a PIPE OR just a short term long who saw this opportunity. The tape was carefully "painted" (as was mentioned here) for multiple days which set up a great looking technical chart just prior to the double whammy effect of pre ASCO speculation AND the Russell deadline. On last Thursday morning this entity(s) could have "juiced" PPHM with a few million shares (chump change for a hedge fund) and got the attention of : Momentum traders piling in, ASCO effect players (who would think something was up because of the action), and once it hit $1 that morning Russell related funds would see it on their radar and jump in. Perfectly set up timing for whoever orchestrated this. Keep in mind shorts want to sell high so they have more room for the stock to fall. This entity(s) sell their few million shares into the tens of millions of created buying, or then can short with their outlook being either cover with discounted PIPE shares or the later decline when no big deal is announced. The stock still being volitile and volume being high is all related to last Thursdays massive volume - the effects linger and will dissipate gradually. Adding to this perfect storm was the pumpers on stock message boards showed an uptick, and Kings comments about "partnership talks". Do I think King is a liar? No, I believe there were talks, but there is no need to announce multiple times that you are in partnership talks if a deal is about to be done. The deal comes and the news moves the stock. The fact that PPHM keeps mentioning partnership talks is all the reason I need to believe that there will not be a worthwhile partnership (for tens of $millions) coming soon. Let's face it, ASCO was a big dud and the Russell was missed. What has PPHM actually done? Still almost broke and needing a reverse split. Data didn't get much attention, more phase 2 time to go, no deal announced. Bottom line, I expect that this rally will die like every other one for this stock, and the shares will decline significantly from this level. I don't see any indication that PPHM's drug candidates are ready for big money deals.
Remember, even $50 million is a lousy 22 cents per share.
It's still not happening. Flame away! But that's the way I see it.