The attack on the sacred Shiite city of Najaf by the United States and good dog Allawi will probably serve to help spread Iranian influence throughout the Shiite world. In winning the battle of Najaf the U.S. will in my opinion greatly diminish its power base in Shiite countries giving Iran a window in which to garner more support among the Shiite population. This will prove to be a lousy trade.
Shiites constitute about 10% of the world's Muslims, and are the majority population in Iran (93%) and Azerbaijan (61%). They comprise large communities in India and Pakistan (over 50 million total), but are the majority in only two Arab nations, tiny Bahrain (65%) and Iraq (60%). #msg-3829239 http://www.counterpunch.org/leupp08162004.html
(Washington, DC--August 17, 2004) Iran's strategic calculations for the Middle East, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Russia are driving a "new and aggressive foreign policy," a foreign policy expert told a RFE/RL audience last week. Terming its' policy one of "deterrent defense," Iran aims to prevent Western -- or more precisely United States -- influence from spreading in the Middle East while "projecting Iranian influence into areas where there is a vacuum of power.
Ilan Berman, Vice President for Policy at the American Foreign Policy Council, explained there exists an "Iranian paradox:" the war on terror is simultaneously enhancing and threatening Iran's strategic position in the Middle East. On one hand, Berman said, the United States' war on terrorism eliminated Iran's traditional enemies: the Taliban, Saddam Hussein, and insurgent groups that threatened Tehran from bases in Iraq. However, according to Berman, the Iranian government also sees the war on terrorism as a threat, identifying the U.S. as a powerful new adversary pursuing an aggressive anti-terror campaign that includes Iran in the so-called "axis of evil." Iranians fear being geographically "hemmed in" by "U.S. strategic forces which have been moved east," Berman said, and thus the government in Tehran has moved forward with nuclear programs designed to deter and defend against perceived threats.
Berman highlighted four policies Iran has pursued to strengthen its role in international politics: military rearmament, Gulf activism, coalition-building, and supporting the insurgency in Iraq. Berman said that Iran may be providing "$70 million a month to the insurgents in Iraq," in order to "derail the elections" and prevent the establishment of a pro-U.S. coalition in the Middle East. Iran's policies concerning the countries of the Caucasus region and Central Asia provide further evidence that the country is expanding its focus beyond regional to international politics, Berman said. In these diverse areas, Iran has tried to use coalition building and energy diplomacy to achieve greater leverage, according to Berman, even conducting military exercises on the borders of neighboring countries in an effort to send a message.
As Iran pursues a greater role in international affairs, Berman said, the dynamic of its relationship with Russia has changed. Initially the Russian-Iranian relationship was pragmatic: the Russians dominated the alliance and Iran received conventional arms and "nuclear know-how" in return for "containing religious radicalism." With its increasing strength Iran has become an "equal partner" with Russia in Central Asia, Berman said. Berman speculated that, in the future, Iran might gain the upper hand in its relationship with the Russian Federation.
To hear archived audio for this and other RFE/RL briefings and events, please visit our website at www.regionalanalysis.org.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is a private, international communications service to Eastern and Southeastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia, funded by the U.S. Congress through the Broadcasting Board of Governors.
This just goes to show you don’t bet on the Grand Game of Chess.
Iran’s President Mohammad Khatami recently visited Azerbaijan for talks which focused on Teheran’s unease with the growing American military presence in the oil-rich Caspian Sea state.
Khatami had talks with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, at the start of the first visit of an Iranian leader to the pro-Western neighboring republic in over a decade.
The official portion of the visit saw the two sides sign 10 documents, according to officials. They included a joint declaration on the Caspian as well as initiatives to boost trade and economic cooperation. #msg-3833449
In the wake of a potential alliance of friendship and cooperation between Azerbaijan and Iran is seen what may be one of the first concrete steps taken to bring Iran down, the prevention of Iranian trucks from crossing the republic. This comes at a time when tensions are escalating between Israel and Iran and speculation that the United States will establish a military base in Azerbaijan is high.
The Azeri Customs has prevented Iranian trucks from crossing the republic on their way to Russia and Georgia since last week, informed sources said Sunday, Iran's State News Agency (IRNA) reported.
"The Americans do not rule out that Iran is their future target," Mirqadirov said.
To control, or dominate Iran, Bush has to encircle it: Afghanistan to the East, Turkey/Azerbaijan to the North, Iraq to the West, the South are already U.S. stooges. #msg-1263010
LONDON, August 22 (IranMania) - The Azeri Customs has prevented Iranian trucks from crossing the republic on their way to Russia and Georgia since last week, informed sources said Sunday, Iran's State News Agency (IRNA) reported.
Azeri customs officers in Astara borderpoint (north of Iran) have stopped about 100 Iranian trucks since last week and asked each to pay 2,000 dollars to guarantee the goods they carried would be transited out of Azerbaijan, said the sources speaking on condition of anonymity.
Blasting the move of Azeri customs as contradictory to international transit regulations, the sources added that such regulations require Azerbaijan to allow not only the transit of Iranian carriers but also facilitate their safe passage through its soil.
Some of the goods carried by the trucks that were not allowed to continue their journey were said to be spoiled, the sources added.
Iran is considering taking reciprocal measures in its borders with Azerbaijan as efforts by Tehran to solve the problem with the Azeri side have as yet been ineffective, concluded the sources.
US TROOP REDEPLOYMENT SPARKS SPECULATION ON AZERBAIJANI BASE
In addition, Mirqadirov voiced concern about the possibility of Azerbaijan becoming embroiled in the long-running feud between the United States and Iran. "The Americans do not rule out that Iran is their future target," Mirqadirov said. "If all these statements are made in order to frighten Tehran – then that’s one thing. But if the Americans start another mess – moreover, one along our border – then Azerbaijan, irrespective of its wishes, will be dragged into this conflict."[/
Fariz Ismailzade: 8/23/04
News that the United States plans a massive redeployment of its armed forces has Azerbaijanis wondering whether their country will soon host US troops. Azerbaijani officials are coy on the base question, prompting some local political analysts to say Baku is trying to leverage the issue to achieve a breakthrough on the stalled talks on a Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement.
Speculation over whether the United States would establish a military base in Azerbaijan began almost immediately after US leaders announced August 16 that up 70,000 US troops in Europe and East Asia would be redeployed. Most US soldiers appear headed back to the United States, but some will staff new facilities, in keeping with the Pentagon’s desire to create a more mobile armed forces. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
A few days before the announcement, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld visited Baku for hastily arranged talks. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Azerbaijani government provided only a vague description about the discussions. However, Zerkalo, an independent daily newspaper, claimed that a tentative base deal had been reached. "Moreover, the USA is interested in modernizing ... military airfields in Azerbaijan," Zerkalo reported on August 17, without citing a source.
Azerbaijani media have also seized on recent comments attributed to Gen. Charles Wald, the deputy commander for US forces in Europe, who reportedly indicated that US defense officials were considering Azerbaijan, Uganda and the island state of Sao Tome as potential host sites for US rapid deployment forces. According to the Azerbaijani reports, the United States is seeking a base in Azerbaijan to ensure the security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and to monitor developments in Iran, which Washington believes is working hard to develop nuclear weapons. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
While some Azerbaijani media outlets are treating an American base as a fait accompli, the only public statements on the issue by Azerbaijani officials have been non-committal. Foreign Minister Eldar Mammadyarov has acknowledged that talks are on-going, but he stressed on August 19 that "it is naive to think that military bases can be set up overnight."
Some analysts say it wasn’t coincidental that Mammadyarov made the statement in Moscow. Russia is on record as opposing any US redeployment that would place American troops in the formerly Communist sphere, and a few observers believe the potential American base is at the center of a geopolitical game being played by Baku. The objective, from Baku’s viewpoint, is to secure increased political support for a Karabakh peace settlement that is to Azerbaijan’s liking. Azerbaijan has insisted that any settlement leave the region under Baku’s jurisdiction. Azerbaijani officials have grown restless in recent months over the lack of progress in the peace talks. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Mammadyarov said in an August 19 television interview that the Karabakh question topped his agenda during talks with Russian leaders in Moscow. Some in Baku believe Russia, given Moscow’s close strategic relationship with Armenia, is the key to achieving the desired breakthrough on Karabakh. A trade-off involving Azerbaijan’s rejection of an American base, effectively in return for greater Russian support for Baku in the Karabakh peace process, could possibly pressure Armenia into softening its Karabakh negotiating position. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Some pundits say Mammadyarov’s attempt to use the base issue as a diplomatic bargaining chip has so far failed. They note that both Russia and the United States have given no public indication of shifting their existing positions on the Karabakh peace process. Given the apparent failure of what some in Baku describe as Azerbaijan’s base "bluff," officials are now left to weigh the potential merits and liabilities of playing host to American troops.
Political analyst Rauf Mirqadirov, writing in an analysis published August 19 analysis by Zerkalo, examined the pros and cons of the base issue. On the plus side, Mirqadirov said the presence of US forces would facilitate rapid economic development in the region. He also downplayed the possibility of Russian retaliation, arguing that Moscow "is not ready for global confrontation with the United States."
Mirqadirov, however, envisioned several potential negatives arising out of a possible basing arrangement. An American presence, for example, could make Azerbaijan a target of Islamic militant action. It could also potentially limit Azerbaijan’s options in striving to achieve its Karabakh settlement objectives.
In addition, Mirqadirov voiced concern about the possibility of Azerbaijan becoming embroiled in the long-running feud between the United States and Iran. "The Americans do not rule out that Iran is their future target," Mirqadirov said. "If all these statements are made in order to frighten Tehran – then that’s one thing. But if the Americans start another mess – moreover, one along our border – then Azerbaijan, irrespective of its wishes, will be dragged into this conflict."
Azerbaijanis interviewed at random on the streets of Baku offered a mixed view on the base issue. "We need to see, first, what is our benefit from these bases. Will they help us in the war with Armenia?" said Nargiz, a university student. Niyazi, an employee at a trading house, suggested an American troop presence would "only bring us trouble with Iran." Others, however, said US troops would help defend against potential encroachment by Iran or Russia against Azerbaijan’s sovereignty.
Editor’s Note: Fariz Ismailzade is a freelance writer on Caucasus politics and economics. He has obtained his masters degree from the Washington University in St. Louis and is currently based in Baku.
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