Replies to post #77965 on Biotech Values

[corpstrat]

MNTA upside - Good stuff. How about sharing your value analysis of the other potential outcomes?

[dewophile]

i think the price dynamics typically seen when generics are introduced may not hold when there is a high barrier to entry and only 2 drugs are competing for market share. that is, i think SNY will fight for market share and pricing won't be static. it may boil down to COGs.neither are completely vertically integrated, but SNY initially may have an advantage based on scale. I think a more conservative assumption is 50% market share when steady state if you will is reached - likely at a price point close to the discount you assume. jmo
on the other hand, what approval as a sole generic implies for the FOB platform in general is HUGE. it's a complete validation of MNTA's characterization platform for sugars - they key piece (as I know you know) in validating sameness for glycoproteins

[Smooth]

Excuse if already asked, but when does lovenox get voted on by FDA?

[PSA declining]

I hope you are right. I'm not sure if the Market is smart enough or will be smart enough to recognize MNTA's immense potential under best case scenario. MNTA's potential will only be realized over time, if other ANDA's get turned down.
What determines which ANDA's get complete examination and final word first?
What are the chances that MNTA hears back first from the FDA?

Thanks for the input! Learned much from reading this board.

[ThomasS]

MNTA: You assumed a 25% discount to Lovenox in this post, such that the NPV will now be clearly higher with the assumed pricing from Sandoz. Have you updated your present models regarding NPV?
(Actually, why bother since the U.S.Tax Code is likely to change for 2011...)
tia