>>ISRG - da Vinci systems sales:
4Q08: 85 WW (55 U.S. and 30 O-U.S.)
1Q09: 66 WW (44 U.S. and 22 O-U.S.)<<
Q4 is always the peak for system sales, but yes - of course hospital cap ex is down.
>>Think an important data are instrument revenue per system installed and believe these were slightly declining.<<
Yes, and I discussed why. It is because instruments used per procedure is down - see my previous post for the details. Obviously the instruments being used per procedure will not continue going down until they reach 0. This is a temporary trend. A few years ago, I&A revenue per procedure was going up. You are focusing on issues which are more noise than signal. The signal is 60% growth in adoption of the technology - as measured by procedures carried out.
Next year you will probably see hospitals' cap ex back to normal with them catching up on the da Vinci demand. They will also be restocking their instrument inventory. This will generate a revenue bump in the opposite direction for Intuitive.
And while some investors and analysts will go crazy when that happens, it will not affect the adoption of the technology, which is what really matters long term.
micro