Welcome, Skeptic.
>> It seems to be more of a general biotech board than specifically for GENR. <<
Quite so. I think there’s much to be learned about biotechs in general that can increase your success rate investing in specific biotechs. GENR and its competitors remain the anchor of the board, but we welcome all topics related to healthcare investing.
>> I would say one thing about your prediction for [Macugen's] panel vote on Aug 27th...You are predicting there is a 75% chance that the panel will give it a thumbs up and I would say that if that happens, the stock should see a 30% spike which puts it around 41 from today's prices. Why not cover your short now (play the odds) and then put it back in place after the event? <<
I’m not convinced that the price will necessarily spike back to the 40’s on a favorable panel vote. Much of Wall Street considers a favorable outcome as a given. Moreover, the second lockup expiration coincides with the panel meeting and hence a favorable outcome can be expected to unleash a new wave of insider selling.
Further, if my intent were to minimize risk I wouldn’t be shorting in the first place. I want to expose myself to some risk in order to reap the large benefit if Macugen runs into some roadblocks.
On a more fundamental level, I simply don’t think Macugen is going to be a huge-selling drug. I question whether, after deducting the cut for PFE, GILD, RayLo, and the feds, EYET will ever earn enough money from this drug to justify the outsized market cap. Regards, Dew
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