You're right.. There's no need to call probabilty into the situation. No need to reflect on a history of similar actions. In fact, there's absolutely no reason to even invest. I mean, if the price is simply what it is, then there is no reason to anticipate the stock going up or down. Come to think of it. I think I'll cash out and put my money into a sock drawer. I mean, I won't lose any money with it there. And it has the big bonus of being quickly exchanged for things of true value... pizza and beer.