It's that time once again to review the past week and look forward into the next. As mentioned in my previous update with which this post replies, "we may just meander around and put in a base before a rebound begins in earnest (that is if we indeed have found our bottom or some support)". The other indices such as SPX, INDU and RUT seem to be making a better attempt at this than the COMPQ, although we do seem to be hanging around the 38.2% retrace level of the the COMPQ Jan'04 high and Oct'02 low. All in all the market in general seemed rather boring (at least to me) and I had a hard time staying interested in this weeks action. As they say, "never short a dull market" may apply here. We shall see...
As for Econ #'s Wholesale Inventories, Business Inventories and Productivity drifted higher, the Treasury Budget and Trade Balances rose sharply, Retail Sales fell off a bit and Import/Export Prices were up slightly with PPI and Core PPI coming in flat. Then Initial Jobless claims fell by 4K, Michigan Sentiment was down and everybody's favorite Uncle raised rates by .25bp. While the Fed's move was met with enthusiasm, an equal amout of pessimism greeted the Budget and Balance #'s. I would say the only silver lining this week amongst the Econ #'s and rising oil prices was DELL's quarterly report which showed Mr. Market that life does exist on the planet of uncertainty.
As for next week we will get the NY Empire State Index, Building Permits, CPI and Core CPI, Housing Starts, Capacity and Industrial Utilization, LEI, Philly Fed and Initial Jobless Claims. If we are indeed hitting a soft patch as the Fed claims, then an improvement in this weeks indicators (especially LEI which has been falling for months) could go a long way in backing Big Al's pontification. Although it may still be too soon with us smack dab in the middle of the summer dols to see any improvements. We shall see...
So what can we expect for the week to come? As stated a little earlier, this is one boring market. I am still not sure if whether or not we saw a cycle turn that was to be around the 10-12th this past week, although we did have a green Friday. Albeit slight in nature, it was green nonetheless going into the weekend and on a day when a new high was established in oil. We are still toting my line in the sand at the 38.2% retrace level. My bullish side says we are climbing from here into Ops Exp this coming week and my bearish side is not as bearish as it what was the week before, but is curious as to whether or not $50 a barrel oil is already baked into the pie. Either way I believe we are closer to a bottom than a top from here and sooner or later should get a move, the question is will it be a sustained move or just enough to move us out of oversold conditions.
NOTE: At this time I am still holding my UOPIX position
Disclaimer: This disclosure is not a recommendation to buy or sell or to do as I do, it is for no other purpose than to let people know what it is that I am doing and create a track record.
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