>>We've never seen anything like that during the recent bear.<<
IMO, that cyclical bull market we saw was just a rally on the anticipation rally. The better econimic numbers we saw was also in anticipation on the side of business that we were due for a recovery and they spent to prepare for it.
The recovery is not there. The secular bear market has returned with the appearent no show on Mr. Recovery. All the tax cut bullets and interest rate cut bullets are depleted. Greenspan has pushed the little guy as far in debt as the little guy can stand.
And, since the economy is driven by homebuilding, every barrier to homeownership has been lifted. There are no new pockets of possible new homebuyers left to grow that market.
I think we are headed into some extremely bad times starting next year. Greenspan could have strectched things out a few more years but he tried to do too much too fast. If 2004 end sdown for the year that's 4 out of the last 5 years the market has been down. How long will it take the average investor to move out of stocks to safer ground? I read a few weeks ago about a guy that has now lost a good chunck of his retirement. He said he could not sell his losers now because he could not afford to take the loss. How pathetic is that?
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