Replies to post #281033 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Dave Sissom]

The Russians are involved in an internal power struggle pitting Putin against the oligarchs. OPEC really is increasing oil shipments. The conspiracy idea is not needed to explain the current high oil prices. Occam's razor applies...

Oil Tanker Loadings in Mideast Surge 22%; Shell Leads (Update2)
http://tinyurl.com/4jele

Note the destinations for the tankers.

"About 60 percent of the tankers, called Very Large Crude Carriers in the industry, booked for July were bound for refineries in Asia, while 20 percent were destined for the U.S., according to the data, compiled from shipbroker reports. There were 14 destined for China alone. "

[Duster]

Did you mean get the QQQ to 35 Zeev?


Expiry is in two weeks, and the way it looks right now by then they will want to get the QQQ back to $25 if all these puts bought here at $33 to $35 are to be made worthless.

[choad]

Zeev, your last paragraph,imho, is dead on,however I'm not sure the russ/saudi conspiracy theory has legs. If I were a member of the house of Saud, I wouldn't need to look very far to find potential problems.

[Bearmove]

>It looks as if Putin and the Saudi are conspiring to unseat our President by doing what they can to bring a panic in the crude markets.<

Another thought, suppose this oil price is a Republican ploy? Suppose this whole thing is being engineeded by the Bush team and the Saudi group. Bush needs to be a hero at something, anything to get his ratings up for the election. If this is the case then we could see oil prices nose dive at some point which will also cause a big market rally. In the mean time, I still say oil is going to $50.

[Applehead]

Zeev,

<< It looks as if Putin and the Saudi are conspiring to unseat our President by doing what they can to bring a panic in the crude markets. If that is the case, I surely don't appreciate it. >>

Couldn't it be argued that if our economy was going gangbusters right now (instead of that poor jobs report last week) that the high price of oil would only go up higher? Could it be argued that our 'slowing' economy is not a good reason for oil prices to fly up further?

There's a good 'tit for tat' going on imo if such things as your conspiracy were true...

AH

[Ace Hanlon]

Steve Saville's latest forecast:

A modest bounce commencing any day now to eliminate the market's greatly oversold status.

But then the slide resumes. Market troughs in September 5-10% below current levels.

Saville has been doiing much better than the turnips lately.
We shall see if this persists

[CoalTrain]

they will suffer from such more than we do....


How do you figure that? Many parts of Russia are not modern economies. The cows will still give milk. The chickens will still lay eggs. As far as the People in Moscow and St. Petersburg etc. they are ready for a war. I talked to many high school kids from Moscow and St. Petersburg last summer. Most are more informed about the "war on terrorism" than people on this thread are. Many can give you a detailed accounting of American aggression leading up to Iraq starting with the war in Kosovo and other Balkan conflicts. It is not as if they will be surprised by oil shortages. They suffered a really bad heating oil shortage about six years ago. The central planning of the Soviet electrical system probably allows for an easy addition of more electricity from nuclear power plants. America cant even get the oil in Iraq flowing. If the Russians end up controling the oil in the Caspian sea they may end up doing quite well.

I am not saying you are wrong I just dont know how you come to that conclusion. I figure the U.S. might very well suffer the most since we are the the most spoiled country in the world and are least prepared and least expecting serious hardships in the near future.

The Saudi Dictatorship? I think they are in trouble no matter what happens to oil and who gets elected. JMO