$50/barrel will definitely impact third and fourth quarter GDP, but I am not sure we are going there (at least not plateauing) for long, since it is not in the current producers' interest to create a high pricing umbrella that makes it profitable (very) to extract oils at the $28/$30 level. Crude at $35 on the average, should be manageable for the economy and not impact GDP (I think that the current $44/barrel is getting many economists to shave a half percentage from GDP growth in Q3 and Q4, relief of the current very high price, may remove that shaving.
Tomorrow jobs numbers (at least the nominal numbers) should tell us if June was a quirk or a new trend, if we get above 250,000 new jobs, I think the current goldilock economy will continue, and goldilock economy has historically been the best thing for the market.
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