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GWMAN

04/29/09 2:45 PM

#1791 RE: Ben Carn #1790

You are simply looking at it too superficially.

1. Your comparison to the regular flu is apples to oranges. We know what the regular flu does and while it does kill some old people and babies, we know, from expereince the typical flu is not going to kill 1 million people in te US next year. We know nothing about this new flu.

2. Since this is a new virus, no one has immunity to it. In turn, they are quite concerned about the speed with which it can spread. For example, it infected several hundred students in a short time in the NY school and has already infected over 100 students in another school.

3. We do not know why it is killing so many people in Mexico and not yet in the US. Once we have 2000 cases in the US, which could easily be within a week, we do not know whether we will have 2 deaths or 75 deaths. This type of unknown makes public health officials worry.

4. We do not know whether the cases in Mexico are 2000 or 20,000. If it is 20,000 and the death rate is less than 1% it is not as big of a concern. If the total cases are only 2500 as suggested now, and the death rate from it is 7%, this becomes a much bigger problem since it has spread from Mexico to approximately 10 countires in a week.

5. We currently do not have a vaccine fr this new virus, which is also a reason for more caution.

6. Many cases in Mexico killed people in the 20s and 30s, in other words, the healthiest segment of the population. This causes any public health offocial to have greater concerns about what they are dealing with because this is the popualtion that the 1918 bird flu killed, which was tens of millions of people.

In the end, your simple comparison of the current problem to regular flu is just that, simple (and inappropriate on a scientific and public health basis).
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GWMAN

04/29/09 2:58 PM

#1793 RE: Ben Carn #1790

And by the way, of regular flu cases in the US every year:

- 15-60 million cases
- only 200,000 are hospitalized (0.3 - 1.4% of cases)
-Approxiamtely 36,000 deaths (0.05 -0.2% death rate)

Right now, in Mexico, though the data is very limited at this point, death rate seems to be 5-7%.

If it does this in US and infects the typical amount of population as other flu, this would result in approximately 1 to 4 million deaths.

So, until the public health officials figure out why the death rate in Mexico will reamin in Mexico, you are going to have to deal with some government prep activities.