Replies to post #279739 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[otraque]

Here is a good counter point to your MA stance.
And it saves me from having to write:)
http://tradingday.com/c/tatuto/movingaveragecrossovers.html

[otraque]

i highlight this from discussion
<<Long-term crossovers carry more weight than short-term events. The Golden Cross represents a major shift from the bears to the bulls. It triggers when the 50-day average breaks above the 200-day average. Conversely, the Death Cross restores bear power when the 50-day falls back beneath the 200-day. The 200-day average becomes major resistance after the 50-day average drops below it, and major support after breaking above it. When price gets trapped between the 50-day and 200-day averages, it can whipsaw repeatedly between their price extremes. This pinball action marks a zone of opportunity for swing trades.>>
i am now watching closely the 13ema crossdown on the 200ema COMPX and NDX as it is just short of 4years that this crossdown last happened.

[gtober]

certainly not worthless. not any better than anything else, but they keep me in the green.

here is a good essay. i think you might have seen it before. :^))))

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18916460

the thing is, these m.a. crossovers work maybe as well as any other single indicator. maybe a bit better according to my work. but, if you can cobble together a couple of good indicators - or more - you will likely beat what these m.a. crossovers can do.

for myself, i have done extensive testing for a couple years now. i have not found any one indicator that is better than 50/50. so, adding a couple together is not improving anything. so, i just do m.a.'s, close my eyes, a forget about thinking i know where things are going.

i get a cross, i go long. either i'm stopped out, i take what i think are good profits, or the m.a. crosses back the other way and i have to close out and take the opposite position.

i also compliment the m'a' crossovers with trades based on les's data, which kind of take the opposite view of m.a.'s. it would seem to be the perfect compliment to a crossover system.

i'm currently long and losing money based on les's data, but with the m.a.'s i never lose more than a quarter on SMH.

[opnion]

Sorry, but that statement isn't correct imo. I might agree with you on daily crosses but the validity increases significantly with weekly, monthly and quarterly. As far as trend lines go, a trend line is good to watch but one "never" knows if "this time" the line holds or not. All indicators and charts have fallacies including candle, pnf, bar, and ewave charts. Imo one has to use a combination of all to see a good picture and since no one is ever ever 100% accurate, if we get 60-70% then we should make money.