Replies to post #76116 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

If the growth rate during 1Q09 were to persist for the rest of 2009-2010, there would be 61,200 patients on Tysabri at the end of 4Q10.

[DewDiligence]

Re: Tysabri Resumes Modest Quarter-Over-Quarter Growth (addendum)

The good news for BIIB and ELN is that Tysabri sales did not decline from quarter to quarter, as they did from 3Q08 to 4Q08 (#msg-35397974). The bad news for BIIB and ELN is that sales growth from 4Q08 to 1Q09 was almost non-existent in the US.

According to BIIB’s CC, a higher than usual proportion of US Tysabri patients signed up for “charity” programs to obtain Tysabri at less than full price, and some US patients skipped doses to save on insurance copays.

BIIB’s explanations for the plateau in US Tysabri sales are highly credible, IMO—they mirror what ABT said about US Humira sales two days earlier. The two drugs treat different diseases, of course, but they are similar insofar as they are expensive biologics with high copays that treat chronic conditions.