TWB -- 4/8/09 update
New pick for favorites list -- TWB - Tween Brands - Why I think TWB will be a mega-bagger (10 - 30 bagger) from 2.14 posting:
TWB = turnaround play operating in a recession-resistant industry (discount Tween retail clothes -- kids grow and need new clothes) that found a niche Brand among the Tween market that's doing amazingly well during both good & bad economic times. Formerly Limited Too, a very successful brand over the last 20 years, TWB developed the Justice-store concept 4-5 years ago with amazing success. TWB has almost completed changing all of their Limited Too stores to the much more successful Justice stores which will immediately more than triple the number of Justice stores they have from 266 to over 900. Do a little research, and you'll discover that the Justice Brand is quickly becoming a cult-like obsession among the Tween market. From Crox to Heelys, these tween fad fashion trends can make companies and their stockholders quite wealthy in their first few years.
TWB is over 90% off its high in the normal $40+ range which it was under the less successful Limited Too brand and therefore I think represents a huge bargain with their Justice Brand looking to top the Limited Too Brand's success all the while liquidity-rich, low debt, $3/share in cash with a fully tangible book value over $7/share. As a huge bonus as part of the major turnaround, they have recently successfully renegotiated lower lease payments with many of locations, the Justice products sell for 20-25% less than the Limited Too brand (which makes them more appealing to cost-conscious parents) while the stores themselves are substantially cheaper to operate for a savings according to an 8/08 PR of .80-1.00 per share straight to the bottom line vs. the Limited Too concept which is an incredible savings since the Limited Too Brand normally earned $2-3 per share in earnings. I can see them eventually (2010 ??) earning $3-$5 per share just getting back to the RECENT level of Limited Too success with the lower cost, higher popularity Justice brand with a PE of 10-20 would make them a 10-30 bagger.
The company confirms basically in their PRs & calls what my research indicates -- that Limited Too was a fantastic fad that began in 1987 and had an amazing 20 year run but Justice is the "next big thing" vs. Limited Too is now more of a has-been. Same store sales of Limited Too were shrinking while at Justice they were growing since the first Justice Brand store was established by TWB just 5 years ago.
Short-term catalyst: NYSE compliance requires $75 million market cap which is around $3/share. Once it reaches $75 million it satisfies it again and another PR about regaining compliance could be forthcoming.
Swing-trade over the next few months/quarters and maybe longer: I think analysts & investors will wake up to what's going on with this fantastic company and greatly raise their 2010 EPS estimates which will in turn help launch the stock. Near the end of March, the average market cap of the stock per store was extremely cheap vs. many other big name female clothing stores such as:
TWB (Tween Brands) -- $65,000
PSUN (Pacific Sun) -- $115,000
ANN (Ann Taylor) -- $321,000
HOTT (Hot Topic) -- $568,000
PLCE (the Children's Place) -- $763,000
LTD (The Limited) -- $980,000
ARO (Aeropostale) -- $2,060,000
GPS (Gap) -- $2,910,000
GES (Guess?) -- $3,800,000
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