ARYX – I think Tecarfarin is a loser because warfarin—“enhanced” or otherwise—will be supplanted by the array of new oral anticoagulants in the next few years (#msg-36027974).
I think the ARYX platform is very interesting. So far they seem to have proven their point that drugs with serious toxicity problem can be made safer with the same efficacy.
I do not thing their improved warfarin is a waste of time.
Physicians are not comfortable in a sizable segment of their patients (approximately 40%) in not being able to monitor the level of anticoagulation. These other agents cannot be monitored and they will have the same level of bleeds and thrombotic events as warfarin (not inferior). A large segment of patients will not be allowed to be on these non-monitorable therapies.
Physicians won’t know where the events are likely to occur until they do monitor.
ARYX is the antithesis of a robust spreadsheet. They have less then 4 months of cash left. If they don't get a partner in the next few weeks they will be forced to do a PIPE.
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