Replies to post #619640 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[fabian]

CR-Au Contaire fellow space/time traveler...

We most humbly submit the most important questions an investor needs to answer are not:
Is this a rally in a bear?
or
Is this a new bull?
[No way to know that answer at this time anyway]

The crucial questions for an investor:

Do we want to have our money in cash being blasted by Bernanke and earning less than 1%?
Or do we want it in a 3 PE company [earnings yield 33.3%]or a 4 PE company [engs yield of 20%]etc.
For some reason, we do not find that a hard question to answer, but that's just us.
The crucial questions an investor needs to ask are:
If one buys into a quality company with a bright future at a PE ratio of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 etc....
Is it likely that in 2-5 years that company will be earnings more than it is now??
and
Is it likely that in 2- 5 years [probably far less] investors will come to their senses and pay far higher PE multiples to those companies we own?
History answers that with an emphatic yes and we like those odds.
That is not a novel idea.
We have good company in asking these essential questions.
We can assure you that the Worlds Wealthiest individual, Warren Buffett, is primarily concerned with what we are and not with a daily rumination of...
Rally in bear?
or
New bull?
'course...what does he know?

Fabian.

[fabian]

Conelda-Yes, still holding short SPY

[fabian]

refining downside targets a bit...

Last Wed we gave the targets as "the 50 day m/a and the Jan high which are in the same vicinity"

The 50 day m/a is today at spy 116.89 and the Jan high was about 114.80.

We think it likely the market will end up going through the 50 day and get closer to the 114.80 area. [it should stabilize and at least try to rally from there]
Will that be "the low"?
Don't know, hopefully a read of sentiment when the market gets there will give some indication.

As we said:

"There is only one way to re-set excessively bullish short term sentiment.
Spank"

Average Joe swing traders should not try to get fancy or be a hero and catch a perceived exact bottom.
Far safer to wait until the MACD's shape up with the fast line flattening out and then going up through the slow line.
That will happen after a bottom but exercising patience there means reduced chance of diving in prematuely and getting wacked by a still falling market.
Right now both macd's are in a solid downtrend.

Today's downside filled yesterdays opening gap but in the process created a gap now above the market. All of those opening gaps lately have gotten filled.
We'd guess todays opening gap will not get filled as quickly as those previous to it.
F

[fabian]

Gold up $14...acting quite bullish considering recent news and excuse for profit taking yesterday.
Why?...Still the best currency out there and people are increasingly knowing it.
F

Housing dead??
Not so fast...

http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/11/real_estate/home_supplies_shrinking/index.htm?hpt=T2

[fabian]

sort of OT- We can only say this while Newly is away seeing as how we're now unofficially "going steady" or "a number" to put it in more modern terms. [the 80s LOL]

Anyone been watching Bloomberg Europe on late at night?
Guys, you been watching one of the anchors Maryam Nemazee?
If you are into dark hair and eyes, well, she's real easy on them eyes.
Whoa, what a handome woman with a wonderful smile.
She's Iranian, came over from Al Jazeera...no kidding.
Very nice slight Euro accent.
Sublime, we'd say...fetching!
F

Not a word to Newly or you will
Go To Jail!

[fabian]

Still feeling "lucky??...The Kenworth is winning

[fabian]

Quick favor...we don't often ask. Next time crudely is going to drop from $87 to $67, would some one here please let us know it's time to go whole Hawg Gonzo Long SCO's??

Gimminey Cricket-$11 to $18.50 in 16 trading days.

Thanks in advance.
Your reward will be in heaven.
F

[fabian]

CR. What's with you!!!!??? Just go F_ _ _ * Yourself!!

*F A D E...
LOL
Have a good weekend bro!
F