Replies to post #75404 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: VRUS Citi webcast

I listened to the call and thought it to be very good as well. I think some of the key points were as follows:

1. HCV nukes have the potential to be less prone to resistance compared to non-nukes and PIs. Schaefer Price, VRUS' president, was quick to point out his bias, given that VRUS' entire HCV focus is on the nuke space.

2. Price made the point I've heard you make before in that it is safety that is more important in a given HCV compound, even more so than efficacy. Efficacy of any given compound should not be a major issue given that HCV treatment will consist of multiple direct-acting anti-virals.

I wonder if VRUS deserves some type of premium given that they clearly appear to be furthest along in the HCV nuke space. VRTX enjoys a rich market cap ($4.5 billion) based in large part to being furthest along in the HCV space in general with its PI. But what about VRUS? They're furthest along in the nuke space, but at a roughly $275 million market cap today, I'd argue that they're not being afforded much premium.

I realize the compound may or may not be best-in-class in the nuke space, but you'd think they would enjoy some type of premium for being furthest along. To date, I believe the safety has been clean and potency good. Perhaps the biggest concern is that VRUS' nuke will likely be dosed twice daily and follow-on competitors may offer a once-daily nuke.