Hack, thanks for posting the chart, it really helps discussion.
I have a hard time using moving averages because of the fake-outs like the one just left of your first arrow, or the one about midway between your arrows. If you wait for a substantial penetration to buy, you miss alot of the upside and often get kicked out flat or at a loss.
You suggest using both a channel and penetrating the moving average which sounds good. In this case, I would not know where to draw the channel until about now. The boundries makes sense as you drew them, but I would not have drawn it that way a month earlier. I would have drawn a flatter channel through about where your arrows are. (edit)
About the time I get comfortable with the channel it breaks out.
I have given up on this technique, but I can be dense.
Good luck to you, Cy