I think as long as the SPX is in an uptrend, commodities should do well. That may last for another month.
I think oil has a better chance of moving up into June due to seasonal tendencies. I think oil will hit $64 or so soon.
I think Gold will be correcting sideways to down for several more weeks before a trend is established.
Your last part is premised upon Gold moving up 2-3 fold, and while that's possible, it seems a low probability event right now. In a deflationary recession, all asset prices, even Gold, should fall. We saw that last year, and it should repeat if we resume it in 2010.
2011-2012 should be flat years economically with markets in a narrow range and bottoms slowly forming in housing, durable goods, and other important parts of the economic picture.
Even if you think this is the 30's redux the bottom in the stock market was reached in less than 3-years after the 1929 crash while the bottom in the economy was reached in less than 3-1/2 years after the crash.
American recessions tend to last around 14 months on average. This one will be longer like the 1929-1933 Great Depression, but it will likely be far less severe.
I am one of those who prefer to view the Great Depression as two separate recessions interrupted by a rip-roaring recovery (1933-1936). That 4-year recovery doubled industrial production and brought it back up to 1929 levels.
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