Replies to post #1026 on Your Economy (No Politics) (YE1)

[Myself °¿°]

You keep referring to...Cycle turn date. I will bite again...
Were does this schedule come from?

Thanks Bull

[Bullwinkle]

CYCLE/TREND Update for the Week Ahead

It's that time once again to review the past week and look forward into the next. As mentioned in my previous update with which this post replies I stated the following; "I believe we will see a lower low than where we presently sit. We have the big turn date dead ahead and hopefully the new low will be set. I have my eye on the COMPQ 1840 area with my target being 1835, but I would not be surprised to see us go to the 1820's". Not bad if I do say so myself... We also seemed to have gotten our cycle turn, albeit a couple of days earlier than I anticipated and that is if we do not dip back down from here.

As for Econ #'s we got the usual mixed bag that has been so prevalent for a better part of the year. Existing/New Home Sales dipped, Consumer Confidence rose, Durable Orders dipped, Chicago PMI rose, GDP dipped and so on and so on. The other indicators such as Help Wanted Index, Chain Deflator and Employment Index are of no real concern although Initial Jobless Claims rose by 5K or so. For the week ahead we have Auto/Truck Sales, Construction Spending, ISM Index & Services, Personal Income/Spending, Factory Orders, Avg Workweek/Hourly Earnings and the all important Nonfarm Payrolls along with the Unemployment Rate. It will be interesting to see where these employment #'s come in at and how Mr. Market takes them.

So what can we expect for the week ahead? As mentioned I believe we saw the cycle turn and on another note we have a "Blue Moon" tonight. While I do not follow moon phases I find it interesting that this would occur so close to a key turn date that has just put in a reversal. If it effects the market going forward is anyone's guess, but I will be looking for us to continue higher on the COMPQ next week. At this point I have no targets in mind as I feel we are in for at least a two week run, but before getting ahead of ourselves let's just stick with higher for the week to come.

NOTE: As mentioned in my previous post I was looking to flip my USPIX into UOPIX which I did execute on the 30th as I had stated I would. Looking back I wish I had done it a day or two earlier, but that is OK with me and as they say hindsight is 20/20. The fact that we got the turn at all is more important and by the 30th it made my decision that much easier.

Disclaimer: This disclosure is not a recommendation to buy or sell or to do as I do, it is for no other purpose than to let people know what it is that I am doing and create a track record.