JLS,
ETF's
I hear you. I'm watching many stocks & indexes including Russel. I have other ponies in the race. I took one out.
I trade ETF's differently than normal stocks.
3X ETF high beta - shorter trades. Note : BGU up at close over last two days about 12%; FAS up about 27%; SP500 up a little over 5%. I'm in other stocks too. A 16 cent hit is easy to recover another day - & start fresh ( I might of sold into shorts covering of general market stocks near close ?). I believe I can re-enter lower. If I don't get back in - it's fine ... I will get many chances. ( safety wins in times like these). Still holding FAS and many others stocks. ie my plan was to wait for weakness & buy & not to chase it ... I chased BGU this morning ... I wanted a lower entery for better risk/reward gain; if I believed the trend is up over next few days. I will & have held 3x ETFs overnight; but I use higher caution with them. If uncertain I will buy a bank stock, JPM, MS etc less beta - safer. - protecting capital - & also then building core positions over long term.
For example : I sold a natural gas ETF about 15 days ago(1% gain .. natural gas was weak .. weaker ... sold on rally) & rotated into a NYMEX crude oil ETF. I sold half last Friday & half on Monday & rotated into a BRIC(Brazil-Russia-India-China- for resource-commodities trade - I wanted BRIC about $1.25 lower - entered because it turned up fast(wanted it for over two years). I avoid the EFTs (oil) before contract month change ( three week limit hold for me)- even if next month contract is higher(it works out most times). Also found March 15th for oil (normally low point for oil - between seasons - etc ) ... I found in the past around March 15th is a bad time to buy oil. I'm not usually using options on oil; - but for example; I can buy 6-10 contracts of crude oil ... have done only 4 trades and made about $170-$190 each time - holding it long or short, for 30 seconds to 3 minutes before exiting -near contract change or other times-news(dangereous). Not trading those contracts in past few months ( concentration & taking too much time etc & I make more in stocks) but I use the crude oil chart & bid/ask (many months) when in an oil ETF ie ERX or 2x or one x. Yes, oil was heading towards the 50 day MA earlier this week & TA was good --- moving up; but economy is too weak IMO .. so I exited with a good gain. (also eyeing oil stocks for entery for weakness - watching range).
Stocks : ie I bought on Friday's weakness 500 MSFT;500 JPM; 500 MFC(it loses $1.7 billion for every 1% drop in DOW - but losses out 10 to 20 years ... so goes up faster if markets recovers-or rallies) & other stocks. Added 500 MSFT, 500 JPM, 500 MFC etc Monday; added 500 MSFT, 500 JPM, 500 MFC Tuesday morning ... sold 500 shares each late Tuesday & another 500 each today. Will add back shares on weakness; or exit to keep gains .. I want 1000 of each for core ... but will vary until solid up trend. Missed entering GE, AAPL(want it lower) and others. I use TA & Fundamentals / economy etc. Normally my swing trades are much longer & yes this bear market effects my trading ... jumping to safety too soon. 20dma yes in normal markets & 5dma & 9dm too in this market. I will ignore TA a times and use my judgement. News and rules are & will change in this new global markets.
Yes, I'm worrying more than a should.
Yes the trend is up; & I hope it is(trying to catch rally -IF IF IF); we will see where the trend is tomorrow third day up ?; it's another day. Keep the advice coming. Thanks.
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