>> Why/based on what?
I assume the subject is INTC at 12.40 vs gold at $940 (and their relative performance in the next two years).
For sure Intel's earnings this year will be low. And the stock price will stay low. Though even in these bleak times, the price was over 15 just 3 weeks ago (as well as several times in the past 3 months). A rise to 15 would be ~20% from current level. I don't expect gold to go much at all from here, and certainly not 20%.
Regarding this deep recession we're in, and its impact on demand for various goods, it is much more a recession of sentiment, than a classic recession of excess inventory (except in housing). Factory goods inventory is currently low. Job cuts are occurring because people stopped their normal spending because they are afraid of job cuts (with good reason). Not becaue factories are trying to clear out unsold goods. But sometime in q3 new lay-offs will stop, because everyone who can be fired will be fired already. At that point employment will become stable. Confidence will return. Demand will increase. Factories will rehire workers, and the up cycle will restart,
So even if Intel's earnings in 2010 are $0.80 as you expect, estimates for 2011 will be higher, and share price during 2010 will be 20x the forward estimate. So it will be in the $20's.
That will be a near double for INTC, and gold will be lower because the panic that drove buying gold will be unwinding.
I also expect oil and other metals to out-perform gold, because of industrial demand.
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